Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34734837›Full record

ArticleJMIR medical informatics2021

Event Prediction Model Considering Time and Input Error Using Electronic Medical Records in the Intensive Care Unit: Retrospective Study.

MinDong Sung, Sangchul Hahn, Chang Hoon Han, Jung Mo Lee, Jayoung Lee, Jinkyu Yoo, Jay Heo, Young Sam Kim, Kyung Soo Chung

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in JMIR medical informatics, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
11citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

11 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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  5. Observational
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

MinDong Sung *Department of Biomedical Systems Informatics, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5217-8877
Sangchul Hahn *AITRICS. Inc, Seoul, Republic of Korea.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2428-9534
Chang Hoon Han *Division of Pulmonology, Department of Internal Medicine, National Health Insurance Service Ilsan Hospital, Goyang-si, Republic of Korea.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4664-8924
Jung Mo LeeDivision of Pulmonology, Department of Internal Medicine, National Health Insurance Service Ilsan Hospital, Goyang-si, Republic of Korea.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9972-8506
Jayoung LeeAITRICS. Inc, Seoul, Republic of Korea.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6226-8799
Jinkyu YooAITRICS. Inc, Seoul, Republic of Korea.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8988-1489
Jay HeoKorea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon, Republic of Korea.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8209-667X
Young Sam KimDivision of Pulmonology, Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University Health System, Seoul, Republic of Korea.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9656-8482
Kyung Soo ChungDivision of Pulmonology, Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University Health System, Seoul, Republic of Korea.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1604-8730

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundIn the era of artificial intelligence, event prediction models are abundant. However, considering the limitation of the electronic medical record-based model, including the temporally skewed prediction and the record itself, these models could be delayed or could yield errors.

objectiveIn this study, we aim to develop multiple event prediction models in intensive care units to overcome their temporal skewness and evaluate their robustness against delayed and erroneous input.

methodsA total of 21,738 patients were included in the development cohort. Three events-death, sepsis, and acute kidney injury-were predicted. To overcome the temporal skewness, we developed three models for each event, which predicted the events in advance of three prespecified timepoints. Additionally, to evaluate the robustness against input error and delays, we added simulated errors and delayed input and calculated changes in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) values.

resultsMost of the AUROC and area under the precision-recall curve values of each model were higher than those of the conventional scores, as well as other machine learning models previously used. In the error input experiment, except for our proposed model, an increase in the noise added to the model lowered the resulting AUROC value. However, the delayed input did not show the performance decreased in this experiment.

conclusionsFor a prediction model that was applicable in the real world, we considered not only performance but also temporal skewness, delayed input, and input error.

Indexed as

AKIcritical careintensive care unitmachine learningmortalityprediction modelsepsis

Identifiers

PMID34734837
PMCPMC8603167

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.