Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34729548›Full record

ArticleThe Lancet regional health. Europe2022

Household transmission of COVID-19 cases associated with SARS-CoV-2 delta variant (B.1.617.2): national case-control study.

Hester Allen, Amoolya Vusirikala, Joe Flannagan, Katherine A Twohig, Asad Zaidi, Dimple Chudasama, Theresa Lamagni, Natalie Groves, Charlie Turner, Christopher Rawlinson and 6 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in The Lancet regional health. Europe, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 128 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
128citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

128 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. The role of children in household transmission of COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2022
    Pooled it
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68 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

16 authors.

Hester AllenNational Infection Service, Public Health England, Colindale, London, NW9 5EQ, UK.
Amoolya VusirikalaNational Infection Service, Public Health England, Colindale, London, NW9 5EQ, UK.
Joe FlannaganNational Infection Service, Public Health England, Colindale, London, NW9 5EQ, UK.
Katherine A TwohigNational Infection Service, Public Health England, Colindale, London, NW9 5EQ, UK.
Asad ZaidiNational Infection Service, Public Health England, Colindale, London, NW9 5EQ, UK.
Dimple ChudasamaNational Infection Service, Public Health England, Colindale, London, NW9 5EQ, UK.
Theresa LamagniNational Infection Service, Public Health England, Colindale, London, NW9 5EQ, UK.
Natalie GrovesNational Infection Service, Public Health England, Colindale, London, NW9 5EQ, UK.
Charlie TurnerNational Infection Service, Public Health England, Colindale, London, NW9 5EQ, UK.
Christopher RawlinsonNational Infection Service, Public Health England, Colindale, London, NW9 5EQ, UK.
Jamie Lopez-BernalNational Infection Service, Public Health England, Colindale, London, NW9 5EQ, UK.
Ross HarrisNational Infection Service, Public Health England, Colindale, London, NW9 5EQ, UK.
Andre CharlettNational Infection Service, Public Health England, Colindale, London, NW9 5EQ, UK.
Gavin DabreraNational Infection Service, Public Health England, Colindale, London, NW9 5EQ, UK.
Meaghan KallNational Infection Service, Public Health England, Colindale, London, NW9 5EQ, UK.
COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK Consortium)

Funding

Medical Research Council MC_PC_19027Medical Research Council MR/T030062/1Wellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant (B.1.617.2), first detected in India, has rapidly become the dominant variant in England. Early reports suggest this variant has an increased growth rate suggesting increased transmissibility. This study indirectly assessed differences in transmissibility between the emergent Delta variant compared to the previously dominant Alpha variant (B.1.1.7).

methodsA matched case-control study was conducted to estimate the odds of household transmission (≥ 2 cases within 14 days) for Delta variant index cases compared with Alpha cases. Cases were derived from national surveillance data (March to June 2021). One-to-two matching was undertaken on geographical location of residence, time period of testing and property type, and a multivariable conditional logistic regression model was used for analysis.

findingsIn total 5,976 genomically sequenced index cases in household clusters were matched to 11,952 sporadic index cases (single case within a household). 43.3% (n=2,586) of cases in household clusters were confirmed Delta variant compared to 40.4% (n= 4,824) of sporadic cases. The odds ratio of household transmission was 1.70 among Delta variant cases (95% CI 1.48-1.95, p <0.001) compared to Alpha cases after adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity, index of multiple deprivation (IMD), number of household contacts and vaccination status of index case.

interpretationWe found evidence of increased household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant, potentially explaining its success at displacing Alpha variant as the dominant strain in England. With the Delta variant now having been detected in many countries worldwide, the understanding of the transmissibility of this variant is important for informing infection prevention and control policies internationally.

Indexed as

COVID-19Delta,householdEnglandSARS-CoV-2transmissionvariant

Identifiers

PMID34729548
PMCPMC8552812

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.