ArticleNature communications2021
Understanding how Victoria, Australia gained control of its second COVID-19 wave.
Article in Nature communications, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
18 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Data-driven strategies for model-informed decision-making during the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review.BMJ open · 2026Pooled it
- SARS-CoV-2 infection rates and associated risk factors in healthcare workers: systematic review and meta-analysis.Scientific reports · 2025Pooled it
- Long-Term Health and Economic Impacts of COVID-19 Disruptions on Bowel Cancer Inequalities in Victoria, Australia: A Modelling Study.Cancer medicine · 2026Article
- Frontline Healthcare Workers' Reflections on Operationalizing the COVID-19 Pandemic Response: A Qualitative Study.Journal of nursing management · 2026Article
- Article
- A data science pipeline applied to Australia's 2022 COVID-19 Omicron waves.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Multi-tiered strategy for large-scale wastewater detection of SARS-CoV-2 in low-case settings provides confidence for public health actions.Journal of water and health · 2025Article
- Estimating the impact of school closures on the COVID-19 dynamics in 74 countries: A modelling analysis.PLoS medicine · 2025Article
- Perceptions and Experiences of Inequity for Women of Refugee Background Having a Baby during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Melbourne, Australia.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2024Article
- Evaluating the strategies to control SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant spread in New Caledonia, a zero-COVID country until September 2021.IJID regions · 2023Article
- Diabetes IN hospital - Glucose and Outcomes in the COVID-19 pandemic (DINGO COVID-19): the 2020 Melbourne hospital experience prior to novel variants and vaccinations.Internal medicine journal · 2023Article
- Is the virus-laden standing water change the transmission intensity of SARS-CoV-2 after precipitation? A framework for empirical studies.Environmental research · 2022Article
- People in intensive care with COVID-19: demographic and clinical features during the first, second, and third pandemic waves in Australia.The Medical journal of Australia · 2022Article
- Impact of COVID-19 lockdown restrictions on hepatitis C testing in Australian primary care services providing care for people who inject drugs.Journal of viral hepatitis · 2022Article
- Article
- Simulating Transmission Scenarios of the Delta Variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Australia.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Spatiotemporal Bayesian estimation of the number of under-reported COVID-19 cases in Victoria Australia.PeerJ · 2022Article
- What Makes a Successful Partnership? Lessons from a Multi-Agency Equity-Focused Maternal and Early Childhood Health Partnership in Victoria, Australia: A Case Study.Inquiry : a journal of medical care organization, provision and financingArticle
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
Abstract
During 2020, Victoria was the Australian state hardest hit by COVID-19, but was successful in controlling its second wave through aggressive policy interventions. We calibrated a detailed compartmental model of Victoria's second wave to multiple geographically-structured epidemic time-series indicators. We achieved a good fit overall and for individual health services through a combination of time-varying processes, including case detection, population mobility, school closures, physical distancing and face covering usage. Estimates of the risk of death in those aged ≥75 and of hospitalisation were higher than international estimates, reflecting concentration of cases in high-risk settings. We estimated significant effects for each of the calibrated time-varying processes, with estimates for the individual-level effect of physical distancing of 37.4% (95%CrI 7.2-56.4%) and of face coverings of 45.9% (95%CrI 32.9-55.6%). That the multi-faceted interventions led to the dramatic reversal in the epidemic trajectory is supported by our results, with face coverings likely particularly important.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.