ArticleJournal of clinical and translational hepatology2021
Development and Validation of a Prognostic Model for One-year Survival of Cirrhosis Patients with First-ever Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis.
Article in Journal of clinical and translational hepatology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Predictive Factors and Nomogram for Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis in Decompensated Cirrhosis Among the Elderly.Journal of inflammation research · 2024Article
- Establishment and validation of a nomogram model for riskprediction of hepatic encephalopathy: a retrospective analysis.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- [Analysis of risk factors for decompensated cirrhosis complicated with sepsis].Zhonghua gan zang bing za zhi = Zhonghua ganzangbing zazhi = Chinese journal of hepatology · 2022Article
- One Year After First Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis: Who Survives?Journal of clinical and translational hepatology · 2021Article
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9 authors.
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Abstract
BACKGROUND AND
aimsSpontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is one of the leading causes of death in patients with liver cirrhosis. We aimed to establish a prognostic model to evaluate the 1-year survival of cirrhosis patients after the first episode of SBP.
methodsA prognostic model was developed based on a retrospective derivation cohort of 309 cirrhosis patients with first-ever SBP and was validated in a separate validation cohort of 141 patients. We used Uno's concordance, calibration curve, and decision curve (DCA) analysis to evaluate the discrimination, calibration, and clinical net benefit of the model.
resultsA total of 59 (19.1%) patients in the derivation cohort and 42 (29.8%) patients in the validation cohort died over the course of 1 year. A prognostic model in nomogram form was developed with predictors including age [hazard ratio (HR): 1.25; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.92-1.71], total serum bilirubin (HR: 1.66; 95% CI: 1.28-2.14), serum sodium (HR: 0.94; 95% CI: 0.90-0.98), history of hypertension (HR: 2.52; 95% CI: 1.44-4.41) and hepatic encephalopathy (HR: 2.06; 95% CI: 1.13-3.73). The nomogram had a higher concordance (0.79) compared with the model end-stage liver disease (0.67) or Child-Turcotte-Pugh (0.71) score. The nomogram also showed acceptable calibration (calibration slope, 1.12; Bier score, 0.15±0.21) and optimal clinical net benefit in the validation cohort.
conclusionsThis prediction model developed based on characteristics of first-ever SBP patients may benefit the prediction of patients' 1-year survival.
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