Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34722137›Full record

ArticleResults in physics2021

Pandemic fatigue impact on COVID-19 spread: A mathematical modelling answer to the Italian scenario.

Luca Meacci, Mario Primicerio

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Results in physics, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
14citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

14 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
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  10. Narrative Review of the COVID-19 Pandemic's First Two Years in Italy.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022
    Review
  11. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

Luca MeacciInstituto de Ciências Matemáticas e de Computação, ICMC, Universidade de São Paulo, Avenida Trabalhador Sancarlense, 400, São Carlos (SP), CEP 13566-590, Brazil.
Mario PrimicerioDipartimento di Matematica "U. Dini", Università degli Studi di Firenze, Viale Giovanni Battista Morgagni, 67/A, 50134 Firenze, Italy.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The COVID-19 outbreak has generated, in addition to the dramatic sanitary consequences, severe psychological repercussions for the populations affected by the pandemic. Simultaneously, these consequences can have related effects on the spread of the virus. Pandemic fatigue occurs when stress rises beyond a threshold, leading a person to feel demotivated to follow recommended behaviours to protect themselves and others. In the present paper, we introduce a new susceptible-infected-quarantined-recovered-dead (SIQRD) model in terms of a system of ordinary differential equations (ODE). The model considers the countermeasures taken by sanitary authorities and the effect of pandemic fatigue. The latter can be mitigated by fear of the disease's consequences modelled with the death rate in mind. The mathematical well-posedness of the model is proved. We show the numerical results to be consistent with the transmission dynamics data characterising the epidemic of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy in 2020. We provide a measure of the possible pandemic fatigue impact. The model can be used to evaluate the public health interventions and prevent with specific actions the possible damages resulting from the social phenomenon of relaxation concerning the observance of the preventive rules imposed.

Indexed as

00A7134Axx92C6092D3093A30COVID-19 virus spreadingItalyMathematical modellingNumerical simulationsOrdinary differential equationsPandemic fatigue

Identifiers

PMID34722137
PMCPMC8539631

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.