ArticleBMC public health2021
Associations between environmental covariates and temporal changes in malaria incidence in high transmission settings of Uganda: a distributed lag nonlinear analysis.
Article in BMC public health, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
26 citing papers in PubMed, 109 citations in OpenAlex.
- Malaria Morbidity and Its Association With Indoor Residual Spraying in Amolatar District, Uganda: A Retrospective Ecological Study Using Routine DHIS2 Data.Health science reports · 2026Article
- Non-linear age dynamics of malaria infection and fine-scale environmental exposure in rural Uganda.BMC medicine · 2026Article
- Impact of intermittent preventive treatment for malaria in pregnancy with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine, dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine, and their combination on infant outcomes: A randomized controlled trial.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2026Article
- Climate, environmental, and programmatic correlates of malaria resurgence in Amhara, Ethiopia (2018-2024): a Bayesian spatiotemporal analysis.Malaria journal · 2026Article
- Malaria outbreak facilitated by increased vector-breeding sites from erosion control pits sustained by intermittent rainfall, Mbale District, Uganda, January-June 2019.Malaria journal · 2025Article
- Nonlinear effects of meteorological factors on foodborne disease outbreaks in yantai from 2014 to 2024.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Climate-driven malaria mortality among children in malaria-endemic areas of Uganda.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling and prediction of malaria cases in Tanzania mainland (2016-2023): unveiling associations with climate and intervention factors.International journal of health geographics · 2025Article
- Malaria epidemics and its drivers in Uganda in 2022.Malaria journal · 2025Article
- Impact of weather extremes on the spatiotemporal dynamics of visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- Medicinal plants traditionally used for management of malaria in rural communities of Uganda.BMC complementary medicine and therapies · 2025Article
- Forecasting malaria cases using climate variability in Sierra Leone.Malaria journal · 2025Article
- Impact of temperatures on malaria incidence in vulnerable regions of Pakistan: empirical evidence and future projections.Epidemiology and infection · 2025Article
- Associations of temperature and precipitation with malaria in children under 5: A multi-country study in Sub-Saharan Africa.PloS one · 2025Article
- Persistent low-density infection in areas at risk of malaria reintroduction in Malaysia.PloS one · 2025Article
- Waning success: a 2013-2022 spatial and temporal trend analysis of malaria in Ethiopia.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2024Article
- Prevalence and factors associated with cerebral malaria among children aged 6 to 59 months with severe malaria in Western Uganda: a hospital-based cross-sectional study.BMC pediatrics · 2024Article
- Article
- Potential impact of climatic factors on malaria in Rwanda between 2012 and 2021: a time-series analysis.Malaria journal · 2024Article
- Bayesian spatio-temporal modelling of environmental, climatic, and socio-economic influences on malaria in Central Vietnam.Malaria journal · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
14 authors at 5 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundEnvironmental factors such as temperature, rainfall, and vegetation cover play a critical role in malaria transmission. However, quantifying the relationships between environmental factors and measures of disease burden relevant for public health can be complex as effects are often non-linear and subject to temporal lags between when changes in environmental factors lead to changes in malaria incidence. The study investigated the effect of environmental covariates on malaria incidence in high transmission settings of Uganda.
methodsThis study leveraged data from seven malaria reference centres (MRCs) located in high transmission settings of Uganda over a 24-month period. Estimates of monthly malaria incidence (MI) were derived from MRCs' catchment areas. Environmental data including monthly temperature, rainfall, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were obtained from remote sensing sources. A distributed lag nonlinear model was used to investigate the effect of environmental covariates on malaria incidence.
resultsOverall, the median (range) monthly temperature was 30 °C (26-47), rainfall 133.0 mm (3.0-247), NDVI 0.66 (0.24-0.80) and MI was 790 per 1000 person-years (73-3973). Temperature of 35 °C was significantly associated with malaria incidence compared to the median observed temperature (30 °C) at month lag 2 (IRR: 2.00, 95% CI: 1.42-2.83) and the increased cumulative IRR of malaria at month lags 1-4, with the highest cumulative IRR of 8.16 (95% CI: 3.41-20.26) at lag-month 4. Rainfall of 200 mm significantly increased IRR of malaria compared to the median observed rainfall (133 mm) at lag-month 0 (IRR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.01-1.52) and the increased cumulative IRR of malaria at month lags 1-4, with the highest cumulative IRR of 1.99(95% CI: 1.22-2.27) at lag-month 4. Average NVDI of 0.72 significantly increased the cumulative IRR of malaria compared to the median observed NDVI (0.66) at month lags 2-4, with the highest cumulative IRR of 1.57(95% CI: 1.09-2.25) at lag-month 4.
conclusionsIn high-malaria transmission settings, high values of environmental covariates were associated with increased cumulative IRR of malaria, with IRR peaks at variable lag times. The complex associations identified are valuable for designing strategies for early warning, prevention, and control of seasonal malaria surges and epidemics.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.