ArticleScience advances2021
Abrupt shifts in 21st-century plankton communities.
Article in Science advances, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed.
- Seasonal patterns of DOM molecules are linked to microbial functions in the oligotrophic ocean.mSystems · 2026Article
- Metre-scale vertical zonation of corals and sponges on a deep-marine cliff reflects trophic resource partitioning.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Uncertain fate of pelagic calcifying protists: a cellular perspective on a changing ocean.The ISME journal · 2025Review
- Opportunities for Earth Observation to Inform Risk Management for Ocean Tipping Points.Surveys in geophysics · 2025Review
- Identification of plankton habitats in the North Sea.Ecology and evolution · 2024Article
- Article
- Seasonal Variation Characteristics and the Factors Affecting Plankton Community Structure in the Yitong River, China.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Global patterns and predictors of C:N:P in marine ecosystems.Communications earth & environment · 2022Article
- Future phytoplankton diversity in a changing climate.Nature communications · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Marine microbial communities sustain ocean food webs and mediate global elemental cycles. These communities will change with climate; these changes can be gradual or foreseeable but likely have much more substantial consequences when sudden and unpredictable. In a complex virtual marine microbial ecosystem, we find that climate change–driven shifts over the 21st century are often abrupt, large in amplitude and extent, and unpredictable using standard early warning signals. Phytoplankton with unique resource needs, especially fast-growing species such as diatoms, are more prone to abrupt shifts. Abrupt shifts in biomass, productivity, and community structure are concentrated in Atlantic and Pacific subtropics. Abrupt changes in environmental variables such as temperature and nutrients rarely precede these ecosystem shifts, indicating that rapid community restructuring can occur in response to gradual environmental changes, particularly in nutrient supply rate ratios.
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.