ArticleBMC infectious diseases2021
COVID-19 underreporting and its impact on vaccination strategies.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 33 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
33 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Uncovering associations between pre-existing conditions and COVID-19 Severity: A polygenic risk score approach across three large biobanks.PLoS genetics · 2023Pooled it
- Revealing the hidden burden: wastewater-based epidemiology for underreported and emerging infectious diseases in communities.Environmental monitoring and assessment · 2026Review
- Fairness Correction in COVID-19 Predictive Models Using Demographic Optimization: Algorithm Development and Validation Study.Online journal of public health informatics · 2026Article
- Article
- Understanding the social and cognitive influences on the adoption of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions: a survey of a Saudi Arabian sample.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Article
- Evaluating the direct effect of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe.Communications medicine · 2024Article
- Underreporting of Cases in the COVID-19 Outbreak of Borriana (Spain) during Mass Gathering Events in March 2020: A Cross-Sectional Study.Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Quantifying the basic reproduction number and underestimated fraction of Mpox cases worldwide at the onset of the outbreak.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2024Article
- The impact of underreported infections on vaccine effectiveness estimates derived from retrospective cohort studies.International journal of epidemiology · 2024Article
- Investigating the spatiotemporal characteristics and medical response during the initial COVID-19 epidemic in six Chinese cities.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Estimating actual SARS-CoV-2 infections from secondary data.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Risk Factors for COVID-19 and Respiratory Tract Infections during the Coronavirus Pandemic.Vaccines · 2024Article
- Accuracy of US CDC COVID-19 forecasting models.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Probability Samples Provide a Means of Benchmarking and Adjusting for Data Collected From Nonprobability Samples.American journal of public health · 2023Article
- Understanding the impact of disease and vaccine mechanisms on the importance of optimal vaccine allocation.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- Two-Year Cohort Study of SARS-CoV-2, Verona, Italy, 2020‒2022.Emerging infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Article
- Social distancing causally impacts the spread of SARS-CoV-2: a U.S. nationwide event study.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
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4 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundUnderreporting cases of infectious diseases poses a major challenge in the analysis of their epidemiological characteristics and dynamical aspects. Without accurate numerical estimates it is difficult to precisely quantify the proportions of severe and critical cases, as well as the mortality rate. Such estimates can be provided for instance by testing the presence of the virus. However, during an ongoing epidemic, such tests' implementation is a daunting task. This work addresses this issue by presenting a methodology to estimate underreported infections based on approximations of the stable rates of hospitalization and death.
methodsWe present a novel methodology for the stable rate estimation of hospitalization and death related to the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) using publicly available reports from various distinct communities. These rates are then used to estimate underreported infections on the corresponding areas by making use of reported daily hospitalizations and deaths. The impact of underreporting infections on vaccination strategies is estimated under different disease-transmission scenarios using a Susceptible-Exposed-Infective-Removed-like (SEIR) epidemiological model.
resultsFor the considered locations, during the period of study, the estimations suggest that the number of infected individuals could reach 30% of the population of these places, representing, in some cases, more than six times the observed numbers. These results are in close agreement with estimates from independent seroprevalence studies, thus providing a strong validation of the proposed methodology. Moreover, the presence of large numbers of underreported infections can reduce the perceived impact of vaccination strategies in reducing rates of mortality and hospitalization.
conclusionspBy using the proposed methodology and employing a judiciously chosen data analysis implementation, we estimate COVID-19 underreporting from publicly available data. This leads to a powerful way of quantifying underreporting impact on the efficacy of vaccination strategies. As a byproduct, we evaluate the impact of underreporting in the designing of vaccination strategies.
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