ArticleNature medicine2021
No causal effect of school closures in Japan on the spread of COVID-19 in spring 2020.
Article in Nature medicine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 34 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
34 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Effectiveness of social distancing measures and lockdowns for reducing transmission of COVID-19 in non-healthcare, community-based settings.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2023Pooled it
- SARS-CoV-2 Circulation in the School Setting: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Pooled it
- Age-specific COVID-19 case dynamics during school closure periods: Evidence from 12 european countries.The European journal of health economics : HEPAC : health economics in prevention and care · 2026Article
- School opening associated with lower test-adjusted COVID-19 case rates in children.International journal of epidemiology · 2025Observational
- Three years of COVID-19-related school restrictions and mental health of children and adolescents in Japan.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- All-cause mortality and Japan's early countermeasures: Authors' reply.Health science reports · 2024Article
- Exploring the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Twitter in Japan: Qualitative Analysis of Disrupted Plans and Consequences.JMIR infodemiology · 2024Article
- Influence of Seasonality and Public-Health Interventions on the COVID-19 Pandemic in Northern Europe.Journal of clinical medicine · 2024Article
- The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the spread of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia: Simulation approach.Saudi pharmaceutical journal : SPJ : the official publication of the Saudi Pharmaceutical Society · 2024Article
- Improvement of the software for modeling the dynamics of epidemics and developing a user-friendly interface.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Behavioural Tendencies of Cats and Dogs in Japan.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2023Article
- Socioeconomic disparities in the reopening of schools during the pandemic in Chile.International journal of educational development · 2023Article
- COVID-19, education and child health.BMJ paediatrics open · 2023Article
- Hidden Costs of the COVID-19 Pandemic Response.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- Unintended Consequences of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) for Population Health and Health Inequalities.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Review
- Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the epidemiology of other communicable diseases in Japan.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2023Article
- Disappearance and Re-Emergence of Influenza during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Association with Infection Control Measures.Viruses · 2023Article
- When schools were open for in-person teaching during the COVID-19 pandemic - the nordic experience on control measures and transmission in schools during the delta wave.BMC public health · 2023Observational
- Long COVID as a functional somatic symptom disorder caused by abnormally precise prior expectations during Bayesian perceptual processing: A new hypothesis and implications for pandemic response.SAGE open medicine · 2023Review
- Time trends in emotional well-being and self-esteem in children and adolescents during the COVID-19 pandemic.Child and adolescent psychiatry and mental health · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Among tool kits to combat the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, school closures are one of the most frequent non-pharmaceutical interventions. However, school closures bring about substantial costs, such as learning loss. To date, studies have not reached a consensus about the effectiveness of these policies at mitigating community transmission, partly because they lack rigorous causal inference. Here we assess the causal effect of school closures in Japan on reducing the spread of COVID-19 in spring 2020. By matching each municipality with open schools to a municipality with closed schools that is the most similar in terms of potential confounders, we can estimate how many cases the municipality with open schools would have had if it had closed its schools. We do not find any evidence that school closures in Japan reduced the spread of COVID-19. Our null results suggest that policies on school closures should be reexamined given the potential negative consequences for children and parents.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.