ArticleNature communications2021
Quantifying previous SARS-CoV-2 infection through mixture modelling of antibody levels.
Article in Nature communications, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
15 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among healthy blood donors: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC public health · 2024Pooled it
- A flexible class of latent variable models for the analysis of antibody response data.Biostatistics (Oxford, England) · 2026Article
- SARS-CoV-2 neutralising antibody profiles reveal variant specific antibody dynamics and regional differences in infection histories in Malawi.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
- Dealing with differential misclassification of an outcome or a covariate in association studies with an internally validated sample selected not at random.BMC medical research methodology · 2025Article
- A Bayesian approach to estimating COVID-19 incidence and infection fatality rates.Biostatistics (Oxford, England) · 2024Article
- Estimating cutoff values for diagnostic tests to achieve target specificity using extreme value theory.BMC medical research methodology · 2024Article
- Estimating SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence.Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society) · 2023Article
- A Mixture Model for Estimating SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence in Chennai, India.American journal of epidemiology · 2023Article
- Article
- Field evaluation of rapid diagnostic tests to determine dengue serostatus in Timor-Leste.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Article
- Serology as a Tool to Assess Infectious Disease Landscapes and Guide Public Health Policy.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Review
- Article
- SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in three Kenyan health and demographic surveillance sites, December 2020-May 2021.PLOS global public health · 2022Article
- Article
- Informing healthcare operations with integrated pathology, clinical, and epidemiology data: Lessons from a single institution in Kenya during COVID-19 waves.Frontiers in medicine · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
15 authors.
Funding
Abstract
As countries decide on vaccination strategies and how to ease movement restrictions, estimating the proportion of the population previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 is important for predicting the future burden of COVID-19. This proportion is usually estimated from serosurvey data in two steps: first the proportion above a threshold antibody level is calculated, then the crude estimate is adjusted using external estimates of sensitivity and specificity. A drawback of this approach is that the PCR-confirmed cases used to estimate the sensitivity of the threshold may not be representative of cases in the wider population-e.g., they may be more recently infected and more severely symptomatic. Mixture modelling offers an alternative approach that does not require external data from PCR-confirmed cases. Here we illustrate the bias in the standard threshold-based approach by comparing both approaches using data from several Kenyan serosurveys. We show that the mixture model analysis produces estimates of previous infection that are often substantially higher than the standard threshold analysis.
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