Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34702177›Full record

ArticleBMC infectious diseases2021

Coronavirus seasonality, respiratory infections and weather.

G L Nichols, E L Gillingham, H L Macintyre, S Vardoulakis, S Hajat, C E Sarran, D Amankwaah, R Phalkey

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 45 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
45citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
7.2field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

45 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 98 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 6 institutions in 3 countries.

G L NicholsClimate Change and Health Group, Centre for Radiation Chemicals and Environmental Hazards, UK Health Security Agency (Formerly Public Health England), Chilton, Oxon, OX11 0RQ, UK. gordon.nichols@phe.gov.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0773-9556
E L GillinghamClimate Change and Health Group, Centre for Radiation Chemicals and Environmental Hazards, UK Health Security Agency (Formerly Public Health England), Chilton, Oxon, OX11 0RQ, UK.
H L MacintyreClimate Change and Health Group, Centre for Radiation Chemicals and Environmental Hazards, UK Health Security Agency (Formerly Public Health England), Chilton, Oxon, OX11 0RQ, UK.
S VardoulakisEuropean Centre for Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter Medical School, C/O Knowledge Spa RCHT, Truro, Cornwall, TR1 3HD, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3944-7128
S HajatCentre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
C E SarranMet Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK.
D AmankwaahClimate Change and Health Group, Centre for Radiation Chemicals and Environmental Hazards, UK Health Security Agency (Formerly Public Health England), Chilton, Oxon, OX11 0RQ, UK.
R PhalkeyClimate Change and Health Group, Centre for Radiation Chemicals and Environmental Hazards, UK Health Security Agency (Formerly Public Health England), Chilton, Oxon, OX11 0RQ, UK.
Public Health England · GBAustralian National University · AULondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine · GBMet Office · GBNorwich Research Park · GBUniversity of Nottingham · GB

Funding

Medical Research Council MR/K019341/1National Institute of Health Research NIHR200909
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe survival of coronaviruses are influenced by weather conditions and seasonal coronaviruses are more common in winter months. We examine the seasonality of respiratory infections in England and Wales and the associations between weather parameters and seasonal coronavirus cases.

methodsRespiratory virus disease data for England and Wales between 1989 and 2019 was extracted from the Second-Generation Surveillance System (SGSS) database used for routine surveillance. Seasonal coronaviruses from 2012 to 2019 were compared to daily average weather parameters for the period before the patient's specimen date with a range of lag periods.

resultsThe seasonal distribution of 985,524 viral infections in England and Wales (1989-2019) showed coronavirus infections had a similar seasonal distribution to influenza A and bocavirus, with a winter peak between weeks 2 to 8. Ninety percent of infections occurred where the daily mean ambient temperatures were below 10 °C; where daily average global radiation exceeded 500 kJ/m

conclusionsThe dynamics of seasonal coronaviruses reflect immunological, weather, social and travel drivers of infection. Evidence from studies on different coronaviruses suggest that low temperature and low radiation/sunlight favour survival. This implies a seasonal increase in SARS-CoV-2 may occur in the UK and countries with a similar climate as a result of an increase in the R

Indexed as

COVID-19Respiratory Tract InfectionsChildChild, PreschoolHumansSARS-CoV-2SeasonsWeatherChildrenClimateCoronavirusCOVID-19PandemicRespiratory virusesSeasonalitySurveillanceVirus survivalWeather

Identifiers

PMID34702177
PMCPMC8547307
OpenAlexW3109844826

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.