Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34696288›Full record

ArticleVaccines2021

Vaccinating Adolescents and Children Significantly Reduces COVID-19 Morbidity and Mortality across All Ages: A Population-Based Modeling Study Using the UK as an Example.

Tinevimbo Shiri, Marc Evans, Carla A Talarico, Angharad R Morgan, Maaz Mussad, Philip O Buck, Phil McEwan, William David Strain

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Vaccines, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
16citing papers in PubMed
2.3field-weighted citation impact, top 12% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

16 citing papers in PubMed, 27 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Review
  2. Review
  3. Review
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Modeling COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics: A Bibliometric Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022
    Review
  10. Article
  11. Adolescent COVID-19 Vaccine Decision-Making among Parents in Southern California.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022
    Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 5 institutions in 2 countries.

Tinevimbo ShiriHealth Economics and Outcomes Research Ltd., Cardiff CF23 8RB, UK.
Marc EvansDiabetes Resource Centre, University Hospital Llandough, Cardiff CF64 2XX, UK.
Carla A TalaricoModerna Inc., Cambridge, MA 02139, USA.
Angharad R MorganHealth Economics and Outcomes Research Ltd., Cardiff CF23 8RB, UK.
Maaz MussadAshfield Healthcare on Behalf of Moderna, Ashby-de-la-Zouch LE65 1HW, UK.
Philip O BuckModerna Inc., Cambridge, MA 02139, USA.
Phil McEwanHealth Economics and Outcomes Research Ltd., Cardiff CF23 8RB, UK.
William David StrainDiabetes and Vascular Research Centre, University of Exeter Medical School, Exeter EX1 2HZ, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-6826-418X
Health Economics and Outcomes Research (United Kingdom) · GBModerna Therapeutics (United States) · USAshfield Healthcare · GBUniversity Hospital Llandough · GBUniversity of Exeter · GB

Funding

Moderna Therapeutics (United States) N/a
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Debate persists around the risk-benefit balance of vaccinating adolescents and children against COVID-19. Central to this debate is quantifying the contribution of adolescents and children to the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, and the potential impact of vaccinating these age groups. In this study, we present a novel SEIR mathematical disease transmission model that quantifies the impact of different vaccination strategies on population-level SARS-CoV-2 infections and clinical outcomes. The model employs both age- and time-dependent social mixing patterns to capture the impact of changes in restrictions. The model was used to assess the impact of vaccinating adolescents and children on the natural history of the COVID-19 pandemic across all age groups, using the UK as an example. The base case model demonstrates significant increases in COVID-19 disease burden in the UK following a relaxation of restrictions, if vaccines are limited to those ≥18 years and vulnerable adolescents (≥12 years). Including adolescents and children in the vaccination program could reduce overall COVID-related mortality by 57%, and reduce cases of long COVID by 75%. This study demonstrates that vaccinating adolescents and children has the potential to play a vital role in reducing SARS-CoV-2 infections, and subsequent COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, across all ages. Our results have major global public health implications and provide valuable information to inform a potential pandemic exit strategy.

Indexed as

adolescentcoronavirusCOVID-19disease transmission modelSARS-CoV-2vaccination

Identifiers

PMID34696288
PMCPMC8537561
OpenAlexW3206703869

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.