ArticleThe annals of applied statistics2019
MICROSIMULATION MODEL CALIBRATION USING INCREMENTAL MIXTURE APPROXIMATE BAYESIAN COMPUTATION.
Article in The annals of applied statistics, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 41 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
41 citing papers in PubMed, 6 citations in OpenAlex.
- Estimating the Opportunity for Early Detection of Ovarian Cancer Using Individual-Patient Data from a Large Randomized Controlled Trial.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2025Trial
- Validation of Colorectal Cancer Models on Long-term Outcomes from a Randomized Controlled Trial.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2020Trial
- CRC-SPIN version 3.0: an updated policy model for colorectal cancer screening that includes the serrated pathway.Journal of the National Cancer Institute · 2026Article
- Developing and Calibrating a Colorectal Cancer Microsimulation Model for Northern Ireland.PharmacoEconomics · 2026Article
- Discrete-Event Simulation Modeling Framework for Cancer Interventions and Population Health in R (DESCIPHR): An Open-Source Pipeline.PharmacoEconomics · 2026Article
- Article
- Modeling the disruptive impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on nurses' supply and wages.Frontiers in epidemiology · 2026Article
- Population-Level Health Benefits and Harms Associated With Buprenorphine/Naloxone vs Methadone.JAMA network open · 2025Article
- A Scoping Review on Calibration Methods for Cancer Simulation Models.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2025Article
- Modeling of hepatitis B virus infection spread in primary human hepatocytes.Journal of virology · 2025Article
- Modeled Cost-Effectiveness of a Rideshare Program to Facilitate Colonoscopy Completion.JAMA network open · 2025Article
- Stress-Testing US Colorectal Cancer Screening Guidelines: Decennial Colonoscopy from Age 45 is Robust to Natural History Uncertainty and Colonoscopy Sensitivity Assumptions.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2025Article
- Bayesian Calibration of Stochastic Agent Based Model via Random Forest.Statistics in medicine · 2025Article
- A Portfolio Approach to Massively Parallel Bayesian Optimization.The journal of artificial intelligence research · 2025Article
- Incorporating social determinants of health into agent-based models of HIV transmission: methodological challenges and future directions.Frontiers in epidemiology · 2025Review
- Agent-based modeling in cancer biomedicine: applications and tools for calibration and validation.Cancer biology & therapy · 2024Review
- DISTRIBUTED MODEL EXPLORATION WITH EMEWS.Proceedings of the ... Winter Simulation Conference. Winter Simulation Conference · 2024Article
- The value of environmental surveillance for pandemic response.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Impact of racial disparities in follow-up and quality of colonoscopy on colorectal cancer outcomes.Journal of the National Cancer Institute · 2024Article
- Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of Colorectal Cancer Screening With a Blood Test That Meets the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Coverage Decision.Gastroenterology · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
Microsimulation models (MSMs) are used to inform policy by predicting population-level outcomes under different scenarios. MSMs simulate individual-level event histories that mark the disease process (such as the development of cancer) and the effect of policy actions (such as screening) on these events. MSMs often have many unknown parameters; calibration is the process of searching the parameter space to select parameters that result in accurate MSM prediction of a wide range of targets. We develop Incremental Mixture Approximate Bayesian Computation (IMABC) for MSM calibration, which results in a simulated sample from the posterior distribution of model parameters given calibration targets. IMABC begins with a rejection-based ABC step, drawing a sample of points from the prior distribution of model parameters and accepting points that result in simulated targets that are near observed targets. Next, the sample is iteratively updated by drawing additional points from a mixture of multivariate normal distributions and accepting points that result in accurate predictions. Posterior estimates are obtained by weighting the final set of accepted points to account for the adaptive sampling scheme. We demonstrate IMABC by calibrating CRC-SPIN 2.0, an updated version of a MSM for colorectal cancer (CRC) that has been used to inform national CRC screening guidelines.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.