Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34688434›Full record

ReviewThe Lancet. Respiratory medicine2021

Does infection with or vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 lead to lasting immunity?

Gregory Milne, Thomas Hames, Chris Scotton, Nick Gent, Alexander Johnsen, Roy M Anderson, Tom Ward

Open access · bronzeAbstract readReview
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Review in The Lancet. Respiratory medicine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 80 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
80citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
8.5field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

80 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 141 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
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  6. SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines and Multiple Sclerosis: An Update.Neurology(R) neuroimmunology & neuroinflammation · 2025
    Review
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20 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.

Gregory MilneUK Department of Health and Social Care, London, UK; Department of Pathobiology and Population Sciences, Hawkshead Campus, Royal Veterinary College, University of London, Hertfordshire, UK; London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, St Mary's Campus, Imperial College London, London, UK. Electronic address: gmilne@rvc.ac.uk.
Thomas HamesUK Department of Health and Social Care, London, UK.
Chris ScottonInstitute of Biomedical and Clinical Sciences, College of Medicine and Health, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Nick GentPublic Health England, Porton Down, Salisbury, UK.
Alexander JohnsenUK Department of Health and Social Care, London, UK.
Roy M AndersonLondon Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, St Mary's Campus, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Tom WardUK Department of Health and Social Care, London, UK.
Department of Health and Social Care · GBLondon Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research · GBPublic Health England · GBUniversity of Exeter · GB

Funding

Medical Research Council MC_PC_19012Medical Research Council MR/R015600/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Many nations are pursuing the rollout of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines as an exit strategy from unprecedented COVID-19-related restrictions. However, the success of this strategy relies critically on the duration of protective immunity resulting from both natural infection and vaccination. SARS-CoV-2 infection elicits an adaptive immune response against a large breadth of viral epitopes, although the duration of the response varies with age and disease severity. Current evidence from case studies and large observational studies suggests that, consistent with research on other common respiratory viruses, a protective immunological response lasts for approximately 5-12 months from primary infection, with reinfection being more likely given an insufficiently robust primary humoral response. Markers of humoral and cell-mediated immune memory can persist over many months, and might help to mitigate against severe disease upon reinfection. Emerging data, including evidence of breakthrough infections, suggest that vaccine effectiveness might be reduced significantly against emerging variants of concern, and hence secondary vaccines will need to be developed to maintain population-level protective immunity. Nonetheless, other interventions will also be required, with further outbreaks likely to occur due to antigenic drift, selective pressures for novel variants, and global population mobility.

Indexed as

COVID-19Immunologic MemoryVaccine EfficacyAntigenic Drift and ShiftCOVID-19 VaccinesHumansReinfectionSARS-CoV-2VaccinationCOVID-19 Vaccines

Identifiers

PMID34688434
PMCPMC8530467
OpenAlexW3207705825

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.