ArticleThe Lancet. Global health2021
Seroepidemiology and model-based prediction of SARS-CoV-2 in Ethiopia: longitudinal cohort study among front-line hospital workers and communities.
Article in The Lancet. Global health, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 29 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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29 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 56 citations in OpenAlex.
- Incidence of recovery rate and predictors among hospitalized COVID- 19 infected patients in Ethiopia; a systemic review and meta-analysis.BMC public health · 2025Pooled it
- SARS-CoV-2 infection in Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis of standardised seroprevalence studies, from January 2020 to December 2021.BMJ global health · 2022Pooled it
- Participant recruitment and retention in a longitudinal study: experience from SARS-CoV-2 cohort in Ethiopia.BMC medical research methodology · 2026Observational
- Evaluation of the diagnostic performance of iChroma serological test in high SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence setting in Gabon.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Diagnostic performance evaluation of Elecsys anti-SARS-CoV-2 assay against RT-PCR for SARS-CoV-2 detection and surveillance in Ethiopian referral hospitals: cross-sectional study.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Assessment of simulation-based inference methods for stochastic compartmental models in epidemiological research.PloS one · 2026Article
- Rethinking the evidence on COVID-19 in Africa.The Lancet. Infectious diseases · 2025Review
- Article
- Population-based cross-sectional seroprevalence study of SARS-CoV-2 infection in urban residential areas in Ghana.BMJ public health · 2025Article
- Distinct proteomic signatures in Ethiopians predict acute and long-term sequelae of COVID-19.Frontiers in immunology · 2025Article
- Detection and comparison of SARS-CoV-2 antibody produced in naturally infected patients and vaccinated individuals in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: multicenter cross-sectional study.Virology journal · 2024Article
- Tailoring COVID-19 Vaccination Strategies in High-Seroprevalence Settings: Insights from Ethiopia.Vaccines · 2024Article
- Long-term monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and variants in Ethiopia provides prediction for immunity and cross-immunity.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 and Hepatitis B Virus Coinfections among Ethiopians with Acute Leukemia.Cancers · 2024Article
- Characterizing the evolving SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in urban and rural Malawi between February 2021 and April 2022: A population-based cohort study.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2023Article
- Polymerase chain reaction-positivity and predictors for SARS-CoV-2 infection among diagnosed cases' in North West Ethiopia.Health science reports · 2023Article
- Incidence rate and predictors of COVID-19 in the two largest cities of Burkina Faso - prospective cohort study in 2021 (ANRS-COV13).BMC infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Alternative epidemic indicators for COVID-19 in three settings with incomplete death registration systems.Science advances · 2023Article
- Priority age targets for COVID-19 vaccination in Ethiopia under limited vaccine supply.Scientific reports · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
18 authors at 5 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundOver 1 year since the first reported case, the true COVID-19 burden in Ethiopia remains unknown due to insufficient surveillance. We aimed to investigate the seroepidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 among front-line hospital workers and communities in Ethiopia.
methodsWe did a population-based, longitudinal cohort study at two tertiary teaching hospitals involving hospital workers, rural residents, and urban communities in Jimma and Addis Ababa. Hospital workers were recruited at both hospitals, and community participants were recruited by convenience sampling including urban metropolitan settings, urban and semi-urban settings, and rural communities. Participants were eligible if they were aged 18 years or older, had provided written informed consent, and were willing to provide blood samples by venepuncture. Only one participant per household was recruited. Serology was done with Elecsys anti-SARS-CoV-2 anti-nucleocapsid assay in three consecutive rounds, with a mean interval of 6 weeks between tests, to obtain seroprevalence and incidence estimates within the cohorts.
findingsBetween Aug 5, 2020, and April 10, 2021, we did three survey rounds with a total of 1104 hospital workers and 1229 community residents participating. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among hospital workers increased strongly during the study period: in Addis Ababa, it increased from 10·9% (95% credible interval [CrI] 8·3-13·8) in August, 2020, to 53·7% (44·8-62·5) in February, 2021, with an incidence rate of 2223 per 100 000 person-weeks (95% CI 1785-2696); in Jimma Town, it increased from 30·8% (95% CrI 26·9-34·8) in November, 2020, to 56·1% (51·1-61·1) in February, 2021, with an incidence rate of 3810 per 100 000 person-weeks (95% CI 3149-4540). Among urban communities, an almost 40% increase in seroprevalence was observed in early 2021, with incidence rates of 1622 per 100 000 person-weeks (1004-2429) in Jimma Town and 4646 per 100 000 person-weeks (2797-7255) in Addis Ababa. Seroprevalence in rural communities increased from 18·0% (95% CrI 13·5-23·2) in November, 2020, to 31·0% (22·3-40·3) in March, 2021.
interpretationSARS-CoV-2 spread in Ethiopia has been highly dynamic among hospital worker and urban communities. We can speculate that the greatest wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections is currently evolving in rural Ethiopia, and thus requires focused attention regarding health-care burden and disease prevention.
fundingBavarian State Ministry of Sciences, Research, and the Arts; Germany Ministry of Education and Research; EU Horizon 2020 programme; Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft; and Volkswagenstiftung.
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