Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34673797›Full record

ArticlePloS one2021

The link between climate change, food security and fertility: The case of Bangladesh.

Mengni Chen, Shah Md Atiqul Haq, Khandaker Jafor Ahmed, A H M Belayeth Hussain, Mufti Nadimul Quamar Ahmed

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PloS one, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
11citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
4.6field-weighted citation impact, top 5% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

11 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 54 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors at 4 institutions in 5 countries.

Mengni ChenDepartment of Sociology, Copenhagen University, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Shah Md Atiqul HaqCentre for Demographic Research, Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain, Belgium.ORCID 0000-0001-9121-4028
Khandaker Jafor AhmedDepartment of Geography, Environment and Population, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.
A H M Belayeth HussainDepartment of Sociology, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet, Bangladesh.
Mufti Nadimul Quamar AhmedDepartment of Applied Sociology and Social Work, North East University Bangladesh, Sylhet, Bangladesh.
Shahjalal University of Science and Technology · BDNorth East University · BDThe University of Adelaide · AUUniversity of Copenhagen · DK

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Climate change is likely to worsen the food security situation through its impact on food production, which may indirectly affect fertility behaviour. This study examines the direct and indirect effects of climate change (e.g., temperature and precipitation) via the production of major crops, as well as their short- and long-term effects on the total fertility rate (TFR) in Bangladesh. We used structural equation modelling (SEM) to perform path analysis and distinguish the direct influence of climate change on fertility and its indirect influence on fertility through food security. We also applied the error correction model (ECM) to analyze the time-series data on temperature and precipitation, crop production and fertility rate of Bangladesh from 1966 to 2015. The results show that maximum temperature has a direct effect and indirect negative effect-via crop production-on TFR, while crop production has a direct positive effect and indirect negative effect-via infant mortality-on TFR. In the short term, TFR responds negatively to the maximum temperature but positively in the long term. The effect of rainfall on TFR is found to be direct, positive, but mainly short-term. Although indicators of economic development play an important part in the fertility decline in Bangladesh, some climate change parameters and crop production are non-negligible factors.

Indexed as

Climate ChangeFertilityFood SecurityBangladeshCrop ProductionCrops, AgriculturalHumansModels, TheoreticalRainStatistics as TopicTemperature

Identifiers

PMID34673797
PMCPMC8530311
OpenAlexW3207736850

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.