Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34672937›Full record

ArticleCanadian Urological Association journal = Journal de l'Association des urologues du Canada2022

A prostate cancer risk calculator: Use of clinical and magnetic resonance imaging data to predict biopsy outcome in North American men.

Adam Kinnaird, Wayne Brisbane, Lorna Kwan, Alan Priester, Ryan Chuang, Danielle E Barsa, Merdie Delfin, Anthony Sisk, Daniel Margolis, Ely Felker and 2 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Canadian Urological Association journal = Journal de l'Association des urologues du Canada, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
11citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

11 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Review
  5. Predicting cancer detection rates from multiparametric prostate MRI Beyond the PI-RADS classification system.Canadian Urological Association journal = Journal de l'Association des urologues du Canada · 2025
    Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Review
  11. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

Adam KinnairdDepartment of Urology, David Geffen School of Medicine, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, United States.
Wayne BrisbaneDepartment of Urology, David Geffen School of Medicine, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, United States.
Lorna KwanDepartment of Urology, David Geffen School of Medicine, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, United States.
Alan PriesterDepartment of Bioengineering, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, United States.
Ryan ChuangDepartment of Urology, David Geffen School of Medicine, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, United States.
Danielle E BarsaDepartment of Urology, David Geffen School of Medicine, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, United States.
Merdie DelfinDepartment of Urology, David Geffen School of Medicine, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, United States.
Anthony SiskDepartment of Pathology & Laboratory Medicine, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, United States.
Daniel MargolisDepartment of Radiology, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, NY, United States.
Ely FelkerDepartment of Radiological Sciences, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, United States.
Jim HuDepartment of Urology, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, NY, United States.
Leonard S MarksDepartment of Urology, David Geffen School of Medicine, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, United States.

Funding

UCLA Clinical Translational Science InstituteUL1TR001881 · NCATS · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES · PI ARLEEN F. BROWN, ARASH NAEIM · 2016 to 2026
$118.1M
UCLA Clinical and Translational Science InstituteUL1TR000124 · NCATS · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES · PI DUBINETT, STEVEN M. · 2012 to 2015
$57.0M
Focal Laser Ablation of Prostate Cancer using MR/US FusionR01CA218547 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES · PI MARKS, LEONARD STEPHEN, NATARAJAN, SHYAM · 2017 to 2021
$3.1M
Prospective Assessment of Image Registration for the Diagnosis of Prostate CancerR01CA195505 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES · PI MARKS, LEONARD STEPHEN · 2015 to 2016
$705k
NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR000124NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR001881NCI NIH HHS R01 CA195505NCI NIH HHS R01 CA218547
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionA functional tool to optimize patient selection for magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-guided prostate biopsy (MRGB) is an unmet clinical need. We sought to develop a prostate cancer risk calculator (PCRC-MRI) that combines MRI and clinical characteristics to aid decision-making for MRGB in North American men.

methodsTwo prospective registries containing 2354 consecutive men undergoing MRGB (September 2009 to April 2019) were analyzed. Patients were randomized into five groups, with one group randomly assigned to be the validation cohort against the other four groups as the discovery cohort. The primary outcome was detection of clinically significant prostate cancer (csPCa) defined as Gleason grade group ≥2. Variables included age, ethnicity, digital rectal exam (DRE), prior biopsy, prostate-specific antigen (PSA), prostate volume, PSA density, and MRI score. Odds ratios (OR) were calculated from multivariate logistic regression comparing two models: one with clinical variables only (clinical) against a second combining clinical variables with MRI data (clinical+MRI).

resultscsPCa was present in 942 (40%) of the 2354 men available for study. The positive and negative predictive values for csPCa in the clinical+MRI model were 57% and 89%, respectively. The area under the curve of the clinical+MRI model was superior to the clinical model in discovery (0.843 vs. 0.707, p<0.0001) and validation (0.888 vs. 0.757, p<0.0001) cohorts. Use of PCRC-MRI would have avoided approximately 16 unnecessary biopsies in every 100 men. Of all variables examined, Asian ethnicity was the most protective factor (OR 0.46, 0.29-0.75) while MRI score 5 indicated greatest risk (OR15.8, 10.5-23.9).

conclusionsA risk calculator (PCRC-MRI), based on a large North American cohort, is shown to improve patient selection for MRGB, especially in preventing unnecessary biopsies. This tool is available at https://www.uclahealth.org/urology/prostate-cancer-riskcalculator and may help rationalize biopsy decision-making.

Identifiers

PMID34672937
PMCPMC8923894

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.