Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34666740›Full record

ArticleBMC public health2021

Effect of public health interventions during the first epidemic wave of COVID-19 in Cyprus: a modelling study.

Ilias Gountas, Annalisa Quattrocchi, Ioannis Mamais, Constantinos Tsioutis, Eirini Christaki, Konstantinos Fokianos, Georgios Nikolopoulos

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in BMC public health, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
8citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

8 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Ilias GountasMedical School, University of Cyprus, Palaios dromos Lefkosias Lemesou No.215/6, P.O.Box 20537, Nicosia, Cyprus. hgkoyntas@med.uoa.gr.
Annalisa QuattrocchiDepartment of Primary Care and Population Health, University of Nicosia Medical School, Nicosia, Cyprus.
Ioannis MamaisSchool of Sciences, European University, Nicosia, Cyprus.
Constantinos TsioutisSchool of Medicine, European University, Nicosia, Cyprus.
Eirini ChristakiMedical School, University of Cyprus, Palaios dromos Lefkosias Lemesou No.215/6, P.O.Box 20537, Nicosia, Cyprus.
Konstantinos FokianosDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Cyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus.
Georgios NikolopoulosMedical School, University of Cyprus, Palaios dromos Lefkosias Lemesou No.215/6, P.O.Box 20537, Nicosia, Cyprus.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundCyprus addressed the first wave of SARS CoV-2 (COVID-19) by implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). The aims of this study were: a) to estimate epidemiological parameters of this wave including infection attack ratio, infection fatality ratio, and case ascertainment ratio, b) to assess the impact of public health interventions and examine what would have happened if those interventions had not been implemented.

methodsA dynamic, stochastic, individual-based Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model was developed to simulate COVID-19 transmission and progression in the population of the Republic of Cyprus. The model was fitted to the observed trends in COVID-19 deaths and intensive care unit (ICU) bed use.

resultsBy May 8th, 2020, the infection attack ratio was 0.31% (95% Credible Interval [CrI]: 0.15, 0.54%), the infection fatality ratio was 0.71% (95% CrI: 0.44, 1.61%), and the case ascertainment ratio was 33.2% (95% CrI: 19.7, 68.7%). If Cyprus had not implemented any public health measure, the healthcare system would have been overwhelmed by April 14th. The interventions averted 715 (95% CrI: 339, 1235) deaths. If Cyprus had only increased ICU beds, without any social distancing measure, the healthcare system would have been overwhelmed by April 19th.

conclusionsThe decision of the Cypriot authorities to launch early NPIs limited the burden of the first wave of COVID-19. The findings of these analyses could help address the next waves of COVID-19 in Cyprus and other similar settings.

Indexed as

COVID-19EpidemicsCyprusHumansPublic HealthSARS-CoV-2COVID-19Health policyMathematical modellingPublic healthSocial distancing measures efficacy

Identifiers

PMID34666740
PMCPMC8526096

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.