ArticleTransportation research. Part A, Policy and practice2021
Delayed reaction towards emerging COVID-19 variants of concern: Does history repeat itself?
Article in Transportation research. Part A, Policy and practice, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed.
- Travel bubble policies for low-risk air transport recovery during pandemics.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2025Article
- COVID-19 passenger screening to reduce travel risk and translocation of disease.Epidemiology and infection · 2024Article
- Article
- Air transportation under COVID-19 pandemic restrictions: A wavelet analysis.Transport policy · 2023Article
- Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptability among Healthcare Workers in Kenya-A Mixed Methods Analysis.Vaccines · 2023Article
- A distributionally robust optimization approach for airline integrated recovery under in-flight pandemic transmission risks.Transportation research. Part C, Emerging technologies · 2023Article
- On the contagion leakage via incoming flights during China's aviation policies in the fight against COVID-19.Journal of air transport management · 2023Article
- COVID-19 pandemic and air transportation: Summary of Recent Research, Policy Consideration and Future Research Directions.Transportation research interdisciplinary perspectives · 2022Article
- The effects of air transport mobility and global connectivity on viral transmission: Lessons learned from Covid-19 and its variants.Transport policy · 2022Article
- Data analytics during pandemics: a transportation and location planning perspective.Annals of operations research · 2022Article
- Air transportation as a puzzle piece of COVID-19 in Africa?Research in transportation business & management · 2022Article
- Measuring Beijing's international air connectivity and suggestions for improvement post COVID-19.Transport policy · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
After more than a year with COVID-19, it becomes increasingly clear that certain variants of concern have the potential to be game changers, determining the future of our aviation. These variants pose significant health threats and possibly undermine ongoing vaccination efforts. Recent research showed that flight bans on the initial SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in January 2020 were implemented too late and therefore, turned out to be largely ineffective, enabling a swift turn into a fully-blown pandemic. In this study, we investigate the following question: How effective were existing flight bans against the newly emerged variants of concern? In other words: Do airlines and countries happen to repeat the same mistake again? We analyze the spread of the three most prevalent variants of concern right now: B.1.1.7 (known as the UK variant), B.1.351 (known as the South African variant), and P.1 (known as the Brazilian variant). We find that many countries, again, implemented flights bans once the mutated virus had enough time to be imported via air transportation. To support our empirical analysis further, we designed and implemented a compartmental network spreading model on top of worldwide flight data for the years 2020 and 2021. We observe that the model predictions are rather accurate and confirm our findings. Overall, we hope that our study encourages air transportation stakeholders and policy makers to avoid repeating earlier mistakes in the future, with the ultimate goal to overcome COVID-19 entirely.
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