What Are the Correlates of Global Variations in the Prevalence of Opioid Use Disorders? An Analysis of Data From the Global Burden of Disease Study, 2019.

Introduction The recent opioid crisis in North America has brought the problem of opioid use disorders (OUD) into clinical and public health focus, with experts warning that other countries or regions may be at future risk of experiencing such crises. The existing literature suggests that a wide range of social, cultural and economic factors may be associated with the onset, course and outcome of OUD in individuals. The current study uses data on the estimated prevalence of OUDs across 115 countries, obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study, 2019, to examine the bivariate and multivariate associations between national prevalence of OUD and these factors. Methods Data on the estimated prevalence of OUDs was obtained via a database query from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Collaborative Network database for the year 2019. Recent (2018-2019) data on 10 relevant variables identified in the literature (gross national income, economic inequality, urbanization, social capital, religious affiliation and practice, unemployment, divorce, cultural individualism, and prevalence of depression) were obtained from the GBD, World Bank and Our World in Data databases. After transformation to a normal distribution, bivariate and univariate analyses were conducted to identify the significance and strength of the associations between these variables and the prevalence of OUD. Results Of the 10 variables studied, all variables except the divorce rate and religious affiliation were significantly correlated with the prevalence of OUD on bivariate analyses, though the strength of these associations was in the poor to fair range. On multivariate analysis, a significant association was observed only for the prevalence of depression, with trends towards a positive association for cultural individualism and unemployment, and a protective trend observed for religious practice. Discussion Though subject to certain limitations inherent in cross-sectional analyses, these results suggest that certain variables may be associated with a higher prevalence of OUD at the national level. Replication and refinement of these analyses may prove useful in identifying countries or regions at risk of a future opioid epidemic or crisis, which could facilitate the institution of preventive measures or early intervention strategies.