Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34656649›Full record

ArticleJournal of hepatology2022

A genetic risk score and diabetes predict development of alcohol-related cirrhosis in drinkers.

John B Whitfield, Tae-Hwi Schwantes-An, Rebecca Darlay, Guruprasad P Aithal, Stephen R Atkinson, Ramon Bataller, Greg Botwin, Naga P Chalasani, Heather J Cordell, Ann K Daly and 32 more

Erratum issuedOpen access · greenAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of hepatology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 40 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
40citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
8.1field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

40 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 75 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Age-Specific Associations of Polygenic Risk Scores With Advanced Fibrosis and Histological Activity in Biopsy-Proven MASLD.Liver international : official journal of the International Association for the Study of the Liver · 2026
    Article
  3. Review
  4. Article
  5. Review
  6. Review
  7. Article
  8. Review
  9. Review
  10. Alcohol-related liver disease and access to liver transplantation: where we stand and where we should go.Transplant international : official journal of the European Society for Organ Transplantation · 2026
    Article
  11. Article
  12. Non-invasive tests for MetALD and alcohol-related liver disease.JHEP reports : innovation in hepatology · 2025
    Review
  13. Article
  14. Review
  15. Review
  16. Review
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Alcohol-related liver disease.Gastroenterology report · 2025
    Review
  20. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

42 authors at 20 institutions in 7 countries.

John B WhitfieldGenetic Epidemiology, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Queensland 4029, Australia. Electronic address: John.Whitfield@qimrberghofer.edu.au.
Tae-Hwi Schwantes-AnDepartment of Medical and Molecular Genetics, Indiana University School of Medicine, Indianapolis IN, USA.
Rebecca DarlayPopulation Health Sciences Institute, Faculty of Medical Sciences, Newcastle University, International Centre for Life, Central Parkway, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 3BZ, United Kingdom.
Guruprasad P AithalNIHR Nottingham Biomedical Research Centre, Nottingham University Hospitals and the University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2UH, United Kingdom.
Stephen R AtkinsonDepartment of Metabolism, Digestion & Reproduction, Imperial College London, UK.
Ramon BatallerCenter for Liver Diseases, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, 3471 Fifth Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA.
Greg BotwinDepartment of Veterans Affairs, VA Long Beach Healthcare System, 5901 East Seventh Street, Long Beach, CA 90822, USA; F. Widjaja Family Foundation Inflammatory Bowel and Immunobiology Research Institute, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, California CA 90048, USA.
Naga P ChalasaniDepartment of Medicine, Indiana University, Indianapolis, Indiana, IN 46202-5175, USA.
Heather J CordellPopulation Health Sciences Institute, Faculty of Medical Sciences, Newcastle University, International Centre for Life, Central Parkway, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 3BZ, United Kingdom.
Ann K DalyFaculty of Medical Sciences, Newcastle University Medical School, Framlington Place, Newcastle upon Tyne NE2 4HH, United Kingdom.
Christopher P DayNewcastle University, Framlington Place, Newcastle upon Tyne NE2 4HH, United Kingdom.
Florian EyerDivision of Clinical Toxicology, Department of Internal Medicine 2, Klinikum rechts der Isar, School of Medicine, Technical University of Munich, Ismaninger Str. 22, 81675 Munich, Germany.
Tatiana ForoudDepartment of Medical and Molecular Genetics, Indiana University School of Medicine, Indianapolis IN, USA.
Dermot GleesonLiver Unit, Sheffield Teaching Hospitals, AO Floor Robert Hadfield Building, Northern General Hospital, Sheffied S5 7AU, UK.
David GoldmanLaboratory of Neurogenetics, NIAAA, Rockville, MD 20852, USA.
Paul S HaberDrug Health Services, Royal Prince Alfred Hospital, Missenden Road, Camperdown, NSW 2050, Australia; Faculty of Medicine and Health, the University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia.
Jean-Marc JacquetService Addictologie, CHRU Caremeau, 30029 Nîmes, France.
Tiebing LiangDepartment of Medicine, Indiana University, Indianapolis, Indiana, IN 46202-5175, USA.
Suthat LiangpunsakulDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Indiana University and Roudebush Veterans Administration Medical Center, Indianapolis, USA.
Steven MassonFaculty of Medical Sciences, Newcastle University Medical School, Framlington Place, Newcastle upon Tyne NE2 4HH, United Kingdom.
Philippe MathurinCHRU de Lille, Hôpital Claude Huriez, Rue M. Polonovski CS 70001, 59 037 Lille Cedex, France.
Romain MoirandUniv Rennes, INRA, INSERM, CHU Rennes, Institut NUMECAN (Nutrition Metabolisms and Cancer), F-35000 Rennes, France.
Andrew McQuillinMolecular Psychiatry Laboratory, Division of Psychiatry, University College London, London WC1E 6DE, UK.
Christophe MorenoCUB Hôpital Erasme, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium; Laboratory of Experimental Gastroenterology, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium.
Marsha Y MorganUCL Institute for Liver & Digestive Health, Division of Medicine, Royal Free Campus, University College London, London NW3 2PF, UK.
Sebastian MuellerDepartment of Internal Medicine, Salem Medical Center and Center for Alcohol Research, University of Heidelberg, Zeppelinstraße 11-33, 69121 Heidelberg, Germany.
Beat MüllhauptDepartment of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University Hospital Zurich, Rämistrasse 100, CH-8901 Zurich, Switzerland.
Laura E NagyLerner Research Institute, 9500 Euclid Avenue, Cleveland, Ohio, OH 44195, USA.
Pierre NahonService d'Hépatologie, APHP Hôpital Avicenne et Université Paris 13, Bobigny, France; University Paris 13, Bobigny, France; Inserm U1162 Génomique fonctionnelle des tumeurs solides, Paris, France.
Bertrand NalpasService Addictologie, CHRU Caremeau, 30029 Nîmes, France; DISC, Inserm, 75013 Paris, France.
Sylvie NaveauHôpital Antoine-Béclère, 157 Rue de la Porte de Trivaux, 92140 Clamart, France.
Pascal PerneyHôpital Universitaire Caremeau, Place du Pr. Robert Debre, 30029 Nîmes, France.
Munir PirmohamedMRC Centre for Drug Safety Science and Wolfson Centre for Personalised Medicine, Institute of Translational Medicine, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69 3GL, UK.
Helmut K SeitzDepartment of Internal Medicine, Salem Medical Center and Center for Alcohol Research, University of Heidelberg, Zeppelinstraße 11-33, 69121 Heidelberg, Germany.
Michael SoykaPsychiatric Hospital University of Munich, Nussbaumsstr.7, 80336 Munich, Germany; Privatklinik Meiringen, Willigen, CH 3860 Meiringen, Switzerland.
Felix StickelDepartment of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University Hospital Zurich, Rämistrasse 100, CH-8901 Zurich, Switzerland.
Andrew ThompsonMRC Centre for Drug Safety Science and Wolfson Centre for Personalised Medicine, Institute of Translational Medicine, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69 3GL, UK; Health Analytics, Lane Clark & Peacock LLP, London, UK.
Mark R ThurszDepartment of Metabolism, Digestion & Reproduction, Imperial College London, UK.
Eric TrépoCUB Hôpital Erasme, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium; Laboratory of Experimental Gastroenterology, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium.
Timothy R MorganDepartment of Veterans Affairs, VA Long Beach Healthcare System, 5901 East Seventh Street, Long Beach, CA 90822, USA; Department of Medicine, University of California, Irvine, USA.
Devanshi SethDrug Health Services, Royal Prince Alfred Hospital, Missenden Road, Camperdown, NSW 2050, Australia; Faculty of Medicine and Health, the University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia; Centenary Institute of Cancer Medicine and Cell Biology, the University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia. Electronic address: d.seth@sydney.edu.au.
GenomALC Consortium
Inserm · FRNewcastle University · GBCentre for Life · GBCentre Hospitalier Universitaire de Nîmes · FRHeidelberg University · DEImperial College London · GBIndiana University – Purdue University Indianapolis · USIndiana University School of MedicineThe University of Sydney · AUUniversité Libre de Bruxelles · BEUniversity Hospital of Zurich · CHUniversity of Liverpool · GBCedars-Sinai Medical Center · USCentre Hospitalier Universitaire de Lille · FRHôpital Antoine-Béclère · FRNational Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism · USNorthern General Hospital · GBPrivatklinik Meiringen · CHQIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute · AURichard L. Roudebush VA Medical Center · US

Funding

National Centralized Repository for Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias (NCRAD)U24AG021886 · NIA · INDIANA UNIV-PURDUE UNIV AT INDIANAPOLIS · PI TATIANA M. FOROUD · 2002 to 2026
$119.8M
Integrative genetics of behavior with high throughput technologiesZIAAA000301 · NIAAA · NATIONAL INSTITUTE ON ALCOHOL ABUSE AND ALCOHOLISM · PI GOLDMAN, DAVID · 2009 to 2025
$68.6M
Brain Tissue Resource Centre for Alcohol ResearchR28AA012725 · NIAAA · UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY · PI Greg Trevor Sutherland · 2012 to 2026
$7.0M
A prospective, randomized, clinical trial to evaluate two novel therapies, mycophU01AA021886 · NIAAA · SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INST FOR RES/EDUC · PI MORGAN, TIMOTHY ROSS · 2013 to 2017
$3.1M
Genetic risk factors for alcoholic cirrhosis - genome-wide case-control studyU01AA018389 · NIAAA · SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INST FOR RES/EDUC · PI CORDELL, HEATHER JANE, DALY, ANN · 2011 to 2018
$3.0M
Novel biomarkers as a clinical tool for excessive alcohol use screeningR01AA025208 · NIAAA · INDIANA UNIVERSITY INDIANAPOLIS · PI LIANGPUNSAKUL, SUTHAT, TU, WANZHU · 2016 to 2020
$1.7M
Immunological Profiles and prognostic outcomes in patients with alcoholic hepatitisU01AA026917 · NIAAA · INDIANA UNIVERSITY INDIANAPOLIS · PI LIANGPUNSAKUL, SUTHAT · 2018 to 2022
$1.2M
Genetic risk factors for alcoholic cirrhosis - genome-wide case-control studyR01AA018389 · NIAAA · SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INST FOR RES/EDUC · PI CORDELL, HEATHER JANE, DALY, ANN · 2019 to 2019
$336k
Serum Proteomic Profiles as Biomarkers of Abusive Alcohol ConsumptionI01CX000361 · VA · RLR VA MEDICAL CENTER · PI LIANGPUNSAKUL, SUTHAT · 2012 to 2025
–
CSRD VA I01 CX000361Department of Health NIHR 200153Medical Research Council MC_PC_17228Medical Research Council MC_QA137853Medical Research Council MR/L006758/1Medical Research Council MR/R014019/1NIAAA NIH HHS R01 AA018389NIAAA NIH HHS R01 AA025208NIAAA NIH HHS R28 AA012725NIAAA NIH HHS U01 AA018389NIAAA NIH HHS U01 AA021886NIAAA NIH HHS U01 AA026917NIA NIH HHS U24 AG021886
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

BACKGROUND &

aimsOnly a minority of excess alcohol drinkers develop cirrhosis. We developed and evaluated risk stratification scores to identify those at highest risk.

methodsThree cohorts (GenomALC-1: n = 1,690, GenomALC-2: n = 3,037, UK Biobank: relevant n = 6,898) with a history of heavy alcohol consumption (≥80 g/day (men), ≥50 g/day (women), for ≥10 years) were included. Cases were participants with alcohol-related cirrhosis. Controls had a history of similar alcohol consumption but no evidence of liver disease. Risk scores were computed from up to 8 genetic loci identified previously as associated with alcohol-related cirrhosis and 3 clinical risk factors. Score performance for the stratification of alcohol-related cirrhosis risk was assessed and compared across the alcohol-related liver disease spectrum, including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

resultsA combination of 3 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (PNPLA3:rs738409, SUGP1-TM6SF2:rs10401969, HSD17B13:rs6834314) and diabetes status best discriminated cirrhosis risk. The odds ratios (ORs) and (95% CIs) between the lowest (Q1) and highest (Q5) score quintiles of the 3-SNP score, based on independent allelic effect size estimates, were 5.99 (4.18-8.60) (GenomALC-1), 2.81 (2.03-3.89) (GenomALC-2), and 3.10 (2.32-4.14) (UK Biobank). Patients with diabetes and high risk scores had ORs of 14.7 (7.69-28.1) (GenomALC-1) and 17.1 (11.3-25.7) (UK Biobank) compared to those without diabetes and with low risk scores. Patients with cirrhosis and HCC had significantly higher mean risk scores than patients with cirrhosis alone (0.76 ± 0.06 vs. 0.61 ± 0.02, p = 0.007). Score performance was not significantly enhanced by information on additional genetic risk variants, body mass index or coffee consumption.

conclusionsA risk score based on 3 genetic risk variants and diabetes status enables the stratification of heavy drinkers based on their risk of cirrhosis, allowing for the provision of earlier preventative interventions. LAY SUMMARY: Excessive chronic drinking leads to cirrhosis in some people, but so far there is no way to identify those at high risk of developing this debilitating disease. We developed a genetic risk score that can identify patients at high risk. The risk of cirrhosis is increased >10-fold with just two risk factors - diabetes and a high genetic risk score. Risk assessment using this test could enable the early and personalised management of this disease in high-risk patients.

Indexed as

AdultAlcohol DrinkingCase-Control StudiesCohort StudiesDiabetes MellitusFemaleGenetic Predisposition to DiseaseGenome-Wide Association StudyHumansLiver Cirrhosis, AlcoholicMaleMiddle AgedPolymorphism, Single NucleotideRisk Assessmentchronic alcohol usecoffeegenome-wide associationHepatocellular carcinomarisk stratificationsingle nucleotide polymorphism

Identifiers

PMID34656649
PMCPMC8803006
OpenAlexW3205566027

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.