Does Religious Participation Predict Future Expectations About Health? Using a Life Course Framework to Test Multiple Mechanisms.

Though an impressive array of health outcomes has been studied, research within the field of religion and health has not yet considered how religious involvement may affect future expectations about health. This is a significant shortcoming because the teachings of many religions direct adherent's focus to the distant future, and future self-ratings of health are a known predictor of subjective life expectancy and eventual mortality risk. Recognizing the need for a life course approach to conceptualizing patterns of religious involvement, we assess how stability or change in religious attendance from childhood to adulthood structures individual expectations of future health. Drawing on data from the 2017 Values and Beliefs of the American Public Study (Baylor Religion Survey Wave 5), we find that stable high (weekly) attendance between childhood and adulthood is associated with higher future health expectations. Parametric mediation analyses conducted in the counterfactual framework suggest that this association is explained by the tendency of frequent stable attenders to have (a) higher levels of beliefs in the sense of divine control and (b) a lower likelihood of engaging in harmful health behaviors (smoking).