Incidence, prognosis and nomograms of breast cancer with bone metastases at initial diagnosis: a large population-based study.

backgroundBone is the most common metastatic site for breast cancer, and patients' condition will deteriorate when it occurs.

methodsWe performed a retrospective analysis on 6482 breast cancer patients with bone metastases (BCBM), who were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result (SEER) 18 registry database. The optimal age cut-points were generated by using the X-tile software. By using Cox regression, we selected independent prognostic factors from 21 variables, and plotted a visual nomogram to predict the probability of surviving to the median survival time. We also diagrammed a competing risk nomogram on the basis of competitive risk model.

resultsCompared with other three common metastatic sites, the incidence of bone metastasis was the highest for patients with breast cancer. The incidence of BCBM peaked around the age of 60, and a large majority of patients were between the ages of 50 and 70. The survival rate decreased with age, and the median survival time was about 19 months. Factors of age, race, marital status, grade, human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2) receptor, hormone receptor, concurrent brain metastasis, concurrent liver metastasis, concurrent lung metastasis, surgery and chemotherapy are strongly related to the prognosis of patients with BCBM. It was revealed that the C-index of the nomogram was 0.72 and the calibration curves showed good agreement between the nomogram prediction and actual observation.

conclusionOur practical nomograms provide a visual and user-friendly tool in the risk evaluation and prognostic prediction for breast cancer patients with bone metastases.