ArticleScience advances2021
Burden is in the eye of the beholder: Sensitivity of yellow fever disease burden estimates to modeling assumptions.
Article in Science advances, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- A systematic review of the data, methods and environmental covariates used to map Aedes-borne arbovirus transmission risk.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Pooled it
- Methods for estimating the burden of acute tropical infectious diseases: A scoping review.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Misclassification of yellow fever vaccination status revealed through hierarchical Bayesian modeling.American journal of epidemiology · 2025Article
- Predictability of infectious disease outbreak severity: Chikungunya as a case study.Science advances · 2025Article
- Estimation of Lassa fever incidence rates in West Africa: Development of a modeling framework to inform vaccine trial design.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
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Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Estimates of disease burden are important for setting public health priorities. These estimates involve numerous modeling assumptions, whose uncertainties are not always well described. We developed a framework for estimating the burden of yellow fever in Africa and evaluated its sensitivity to modeling assumptions that are often overlooked. We found that alternative interpretations of serological data resulted in a nearly 20-fold difference in burden estimates (range of central estimates, 8.4 × 10
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.