ArticleThe Indian journal of medical research
Plausibility of a third wave of COVID-19 in India: A mathematical modelling based analysis.
Article in The Indian journal of medical research. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
23 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 52 citations in OpenAlex.
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- COVID-19 pandemic - Cocktail of variants, a study from Northern India.Journal of family medicine and primary care · 2024Article
- Satellite Epidemic of Covid-19 Associated Mucormycosis in India: A Multi-Site Observational Study.Mycopathologia · 2023Observational
- A microfluidic biosensor architecture for the rapid detection of COVID-19.Analytica chimica acta · 2023Article
- Plausible explanation for the third COVID-19 wave in India and its implications.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- Effect of hybrid immunity, school reopening, and the Omicron variant on the trajectory of the COVID-19 epidemic in India: a modelling study.The Lancet regional health. Southeast Asia · 2023Article
- Adaptive strategies for the deployment of rapid diagnostic tests for COVID-19: a modelling study.Gates open research · 2023Article
- A probabilistic epidemiological model for infectious diseases: The case of COVID-19 at global-level.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2023Article
- Trend of viral load during the first, second, and third wave of COVID-19 in the Indian Himalayan region: an observational study of the Uttarakhand state.Frontiers in microbiology · 2023Article
- Delta variant SARS-CoV-2 infections in pediatric cases during the second wave in India.Journal of microbiology, immunology, and infection = Wei mian yu gan ran za zhi · 2022Article
- Symptom-based vs asymptomatic testing for controlling SARS-CoV-2 transmission in low- and middle-income countries: A modelling analysis.Epidemics · 2022Article
- Comparison of COVID-19 Infection in Children During the First and Second Wave.Indian journal of pediatrics · 2022Article
- Nature and mechanism of immune boosting by Ayurvedic medicine: A systematic review of randomized controlled trials.World journal of methodology · 2022Article
- 'Imperfect but useful': pandemic response in the Global South can benefit from greater use of mathematical modelling.BMJ global health · 2022Article
- Fragility and challenges of health systems in pandemic: lessons from India's second wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).Global health journal (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2022Review
- A revisit to the past plague epidemic (India) versus the present COVID-19 pandemic: fractional-order chaotic models and fuzzy logic control.The European physical journal. Special topics · 2022Article
- Article
- Community structured model for vaccine strategies to control COVID19 spread: A mathematical study.PloS one · 2022Article
- Challenges in TB control and the anticipated COVID-19 third wave: Way forward.The Indian journal of tuberculosis · 2021Article
- Commentary: Meta-Analysis and Structural Dynamics of the Emergence of Genetic Variants of SARS-CoV-2.Frontiers in medicine · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
BACKGROUND &
objectivesIn the context of India's ongoing resurgence of COVID-19 (second wave since mid-February 2021, following the subsiding of the first wave in September 2020), there has been increasing speculation on the possibility of a future third wave of infection, posing a burden on the healthcare system. Using simple mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2, this study examined the conditions under which a serious third wave could occur.
methodsUsing a deterministic, compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, four potential mechanisms for a third wave were examined: (i) waning immunity restores previously exposed individuals to a susceptible state, (ii) emergence of a new viral variant that is capable of escaping immunity to previously circulating strains, (iii) emergence of a new viral variant that is more transmissible than the previously circulating strains, and (iv) release of current lockdowns affording fresh opportunities for transmission.
resultsImmune-mediated mechanisms (waning immunity, or viral evolution for immune escape) are unlikely to drive a severe third wave if acting on their own, unless such mechanisms lead to a complete loss of protection among those previously exposed. Likewise, a new, more transmissible variant would have to exceed a high threshold (R INTERPRETATION &
conclusionsThis study demonstrates plausible mechanisms by which a substantial third wave could occur, while also illustrating that it is unlikely for any such resurgence to be as large as the second wave. Model projections are, however, subject to several uncertainties, and it remains important to scale up vaccination coverage to mitigate against any eventuality. Preparedness planning for any potential future wave will benefit by drawing upon the projected numbers based on the present modelling exercise.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.