ArticlePopulation health metrics2021
Diabetes free life expectancy and years of life lost associated with type 2 diabetes: projected trends in Germany between 2015 and 2040.
Article in Population health metrics, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
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12 citing papers in PubMed, 25 citations in OpenAlex.
- Patient, family and caregiver engagement in diabetes care: a scoping review protocol.BMJ open · 2024Article
- Factors associated with disease knowledge and attitude among ambulatory patients with type 2 diabetes - a multicenter study.BMC endocrine disorders · 2024Article
- Mortality of type 2 diabetes in Germany: additional insights from Gompertz models.Acta diabetologica · 2024Article
- Risk of diabetes and expected years in life without diabetes among adults from an urban community in India: findings from a retrospective cohort.BMC public health · 2024Observational
- Impact of Smoking Reduction Scenarios on the Burden of Myocardial Infarction in the French Population Until 2035.Clinical epidemiology · 2024Article
- Quality assessment of glucose measurement with regard to epidemiology and clinical management of diabetes mellitus in Germany.Frontiers in molecular biosciences · 2024Article
- Impact of the association between education and obesity on diabetes-free life expectancy.European journal of public health · 2023Article
- Life expectancy associated with different ages at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes in high-income countries: 23 million person-years of observation.The lancet. Diabetes & endocrinology · 2023Observational
- Projections of future burden of pharmacologically treated type 2 diabetes and associated life expectancies by income in Finland: a multi-state modeling study.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Clinical Significance of Diabetes-Mellitus-Associated Antibodies in Rheumatoid Arthritis.Cells · 2022Article
- Lifetime risk, life expectancy, and years of life lost to type 2 diabetes in 23 high-income jurisdictions: a multinational, population-based study.The lancet. Diabetes & endocrinology · 2022Article
- Future prevalence of type 2 diabetes-A comparative analysis of chronic disease projection methods.PloS one · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundType 2 diabetes (T2D) causes substantial disease burden and is projected to affect an increasing number of people in coming decades. This study provides projected estimates of life years free of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and years of life lost ([Formula: see text]) associated with T2D for Germany in the years 2015 and 2040.
methodsBased on an illness-death model and the associated mathematical relation between prevalence, incidence and mortality, we projected the prevalence of diagnosed T2D using currently available data on the incidence rate of diagnosed T2D and mortality rates of people with and without diagnosed T2D. Projection of prevalence was achieved by integration of a partial differential equation, which governs the illness-death model. These projected parameters were used as input values to calculate life years free of T2D and [Formula: see text] associated with T2D for the German population aged 40 to 100 years in the years 2015 and 2040, while accounting for different assumptions on future trends in T2D incidence and mortality.
resultsAssuming a constant incidence rate, women and men at age 40 years in 2015 will live approximately 38 years and 33 years free of T2D, respectively. Up to the year 2040, these numbers are projected to increase by 1.0 years and 1.3 years. Assuming a decrease in T2D-associated excess mortality of 2% per year, women and men aged 40 years with T2D in 2015 will be expected to lose 1.6 and 2.7 years of life, respectively, compared to a same aged person without T2D. In 2040, these numbers would reduce by approximately 0.9 years and 1.6 years. This translates to 10.8 million and 6.4 million [Formula: see text] in the German population aged 40-100 years with prevalent T2D in 2015 and 2040, respectively.
conclusionsGiven expected trends in mortality and no increase in T2D incidence, the burden due to premature mortality associated with T2D will decrease on the individual as well as on the population level. In addition, the expected lifetime without T2D is likely to increase. However, these trends strongly depend on future improvements of excess mortality associated with T2D and future incidence of T2D, which should motivate increased efforts of primary and tertiary prevention.
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