Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34633100›Full record

ArticleThe Medical journal of Australia2022

The impact of re-opening the international border on COVID-19 hospitalisations in Australia: a modelling study.

Mark J Hanly, Timothy Churches, Oisin Fitzgerald, Jeffrey J Post, C Raina MacIntyre, Louisa Jorm

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in The Medical journal of Australia, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
5citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

5 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Mark J HanlyCentre for Big Data Research in Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW.ORCID 0000-0002-9279-7453
Timothy ChurchesSouth Western Sydney Clinical School, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW.
Oisin FitzgeraldCentre for Big Data Research in Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW.
Jeffrey J PostPrince of Wales Hospital, Sydney, NSW.
C Raina MacIntyreThe Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW.ORCID 0000-0002-3060-0555
Louisa JormCentre for Big Data Research in Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW.

Funding

Australian Department of HealthAustralian Research Data CommonsIngham Institute for Applied Medical ResearchMedical Research Future FundNational Health and Medical Research Council #1137582Sydney Partnership for Health, Education, Research and Enterprise
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo estimate the numbers of COVID-19-related hospitalisations in Australia after re-opening the international border.

designPopulation-level deterministic compartmental epidemic modelling of eight scenarios applying various assumptions regarding SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility (baseline R

settingSimulation population size, age structure, and age-based contact rates based on recent estimates for the Australian population. We assumed that 80% vaccination coverage of people aged 16 years or more was reached in mid-October 2021 (fast rollout) or early January 2022 (slow rollout).

main outcome measuresNumbers of people admitted to hospital with COVID-19, December 2021 - December 2022.

resultsIn scenarios assuming a highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variant (R

conclusionsIf highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants are circulating locally or overseas, large and disruptive COVID-19 outbreaks will still be possible in Australia after 80% of people aged 16 years or more have been vaccinated. Continuing public health measures to restrict the spread of disease are likely to be necessary throughout 2022.

Indexed as

Disease OutbreaksAdolescentAdultAgedAustraliaCommunicable Disease ControlCommunicable Diseases, ImportedComputer SimulationCOVID-19FemaleHospitalizationHumansMaleMiddle AgedSARS-CoV-2Vaccination CoverageCOVID-19Disease transmissionEpidemiologyHealth systemsinfectiousModelsPublic healthRisk managementstatistical

Identifiers

PMID34633100
PMCPMC8662022

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.