ArticleVaccine2023
Modelling the spread of serotype-2 vaccine derived-poliovirus outbreak in Pakistan and Afghanistan to inform outbreak control strategies in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Article in Vaccine, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Review of Poliovirus Transmission and Economic Modeling to Support Global Polio Eradication: 2020-2024.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Pooled it
- Impediments to Progress Toward Polio Eradication During 2014-2024: Effectively Addressing the Current Challenges.Vaccines · 2025Review
- Evolution and transmission dynamics of wild poliovirus in Pakistan and Afghanistan (2012-2023).Nature communications · 2025Article
- Progress in Access and Oral Polio Vaccine Coverage Among Children Aged <5 Years in Polio Campaigns After the Political Change in Afghanistan.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Assessing early detection ability through spatial arrangements in environmental surveillance for poliovirus: A simulation-based study.PloS one · 2025Article
- Modeling the spread of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 outbreaks and interventions: A case study of Nigeria.Vaccine: X · 2024Article
- Real-time prediction model of cVDPV2 outbreaks to aid outbreak response vaccination strategies.Vaccine · 2023Article
- The immediate impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on polio immunization and surveillance activities.Vaccine · 2023Review
- Article
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Authors and funding
12 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundSince July 2019, Pakistan and Afghanistan have been facing an outbreak of serotype-2 circulating vaccine derived poliovirus (cVDPV2) in addition to continued transmission of serotype-1 wild poliovirus (WPV1) and SARS-CoV-2 in 2020. Understanding the risks of cVDPV2 transmission due to pause of global vaccination efforts and the impact of potential vaccination response strategies in the current context of COVID-19 mitigation measures is critical.
methodsWe developed a stochastic, geographically structured mathematical model of cVDPV2 transmission which captures both mucosal and humoral immunity separately and allows for reversion of serotype-2 oral polio vaccine (OPV2) virus to cVDPV2 following vaccine administration. The model includes geographic heterogeneities in vaccination coverage, population immunity and population movement. The model was fitted to historic cVDPV2 cases in Pakistan and Afghanistan between January 2010-April 2016 and July 2019-March 2020 using iterated particle filtering. The model was used to simulate spread of cVDPV2 infection from July 2019 to explore impact of various proposed vaccination responses on stopping transmission and risk of spread of reverted Sabin-2 under varying assumptions of impacts from COVID-19 lockdown measures on movement patterns as well as declines in vaccination coverage.
resultsSimulated monthly incidence of cVDPV2 from the best-fit model demonstrated general spatio-temporal alignment with observed cVDPV2 cases. The model predicted substantial spread of cVDPV2 infection, with widespread transmission through 2020 in the absence of any vaccination activities. Vaccination responses were predicted to substantially reduce transmission and case burden, with a greater impact from earlier responses and those with larger geographic scope. While the greatest risk of seeding reverted Sabin-2 was predicted in areas targeted with OPV2, subsequent spread was greatest in areas with no or delayed response. The proposed vaccination strategy demonstrated ability to stop the cVDPV2 outbreak (with low risk of reverted Sabin-2 spread) by February 2021.
conclusionOutbreak response vaccination campaigns against cVDPV2 will be challenging throughout the COVID-19 pandemic but must be implemented urgently when feasible to stop transmission of cVDPV2.
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