ArticleAnnals of epidemiology2022
Projecting the age-distribution of men who have sex with men receiving HIV treatment in the United States.
Article in Annals of epidemiology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed, 14 citations in OpenAlex.
- Projected Aging Among People With HIV in the US.JAMA network open · 2026Article
- Ageing with HIV-1: immunological challenges for effective vaccination.Immunity & ageing : I & A · 2025Review
- Projected Increases in Older People With HIV in the United States Through 2040.Open forum infectious diseases · 2025Article
- The forecasted prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity in people with HIV in the United States through the year 2030: A modeling study.PLoS medicine · 2024Article
- Impact of subgroup-specific heterogeneities and dynamic changes in mortality rates on forecasted population size, deaths, and age distribution of persons receiving antiretroviral treatment in the United States: a computer simulation study.Annals of epidemiology · 2023Article
- A Growing Number of Men Who Have Sex With Men Aging With HIV (20212031): A Comparison of Two Microsimulation Models.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Projection of age of individuals living with HIV and time since ART initiation in 2030: estimates for France.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
16 authors at 8 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe age-distribution of men who have sex with men (MSM) continues to change in the 'Treat-All' era as effective test-and-treat programs target key-populations. However, the nature of these changes and potential racial heterogeneities remain uncertain.
methodsThe PEARL model is an agent-based simulation of MSM in HIV care in the US, calibrated to data from the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD).
resultsPEARL projects a gradual decrease in median age of MSM at ART initiation from 36 to 31 years during 2010-2030, accompanied by changes in mortality among Black, White, and Hispanic MSM on ART by -8.4%, 42.4% and -19.6%. The median age of all MSM on ART is projected to increase from 45 to 47 years from 2010-2030, with the proportion of ART-users age ≥60y increasing from 6.7% to 28.0%. Almost half (49.7%) of White MSM ART-users are projected to age ≥60y by 2030, compared to 19.5% of Black and 17.2% of Hispanic MSM.
conclusionsThe overall age of US MSM in HIV care is expected to increase over the next decade, and differentially by race/ethnicity. As this population age, HIV programs should expand care for age-related causes of morbidity and mortality.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.