ArticleThe Science of the total environment2022
Relating SARS-CoV-2 shedding rate in wastewater to daily positive tests data: A consistent model based approach.
Article in The Science of the total environment, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
18 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Recent progress on wastewater-based epidemiology for COVID-19 surveillance: A systematic review of analytical procedures and epidemiological modeling.The Science of the total environment · 2023Pooled it
- Wastewater-Based Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 and Modeling of COVID-19 Infection Trends.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2025Article
- State-space modelling using wastewater virus and epidemiological data to estimate reported COVID-19 cases and the potential infection numbers.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Wastewater-Based Surveillance Reveals the Effectiveness of the First COVID-19 Vaccination Campaigns in Assisted Living Facilities.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2024Article
- Monitoring SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater from a shared septic system and sub-sewershed sites to expand COVID-19 disease surveillance.Journal of water and health · 2024Article
- Critical Needs for Integrated Surveillance: Wastewater-Based and Clinical Epidemiology in Evolving Scenarios with Lessons Learned from SARS-CoV-2.Food and environmental virology · 2024Article
- Making waves: Integrating wastewater surveillance with dynamic modeling to track and predict viral outbreaks.Water research · 2023Article
- Wastewater-based epidemiology approach: The learning lessons from COVID-19 pandemic and the development of novel guidelines for future pandemics.Chemosphere · 2023Article
- Regional and temporal differences in the relation between SARS-CoV-2 biomarkers in wastewater and estimated infection prevalence - Insights from long-term surveillance.The Science of the total environment · 2023Article
- A simple SEIR-V model to estimate COVID-19 prevalence and predict SARS-CoV-2 transmission using wastewater-based surveillance data.The Science of the total environment · 2023Article
- Backcasting COVID-19: a physics-informed estimate for early case incidence.Royal Society open science · 2022Article
- Article
- SARS-CoV-2 wastewater monitoring using a novel PCR-based method rapidly captured the Delta-to-Omicron ΒΑ.1 transition patterns in the absence of conventional surveillance evidence.The Science of the total environment · 2022Article
- An opinion on Wastewater-Based Epidemiological Monitoring (WBEM) with Clinical Diagnostic Test (CDT) for detecting high-prevalence areas of community COVID-19 Infections.Current opinion in environmental science & health · 2022Review
- Population level SARS-CoV-2 fecal shedding rates determined via wastewater-based epidemiology.The Science of the total environment · 2022Article
- A simple SEIR-V model to estimate COVID-19 prevalence and predict SARS-CoV-2 transmission using wastewater-based surveillance data.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2022Article
- Emerging and Re-Emerging Infectious Diseases: Humankind's Companions and Competitors.Microorganisms · 2022Article
- A nationwide indicator to smooth and normalize heterogeneous SARS-CoV-2 RNA data in wastewater.Environment international · 2022Article
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16 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
During the COVID-19 pandemic, wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been engaged to complement medical surveillance and in some cases to also act as an early diagnosis indicator of viral spreading in the community. Most efforts worldwide by the scientific community and commercial companies focus on the formulation of protocols for SARS-CoV-2 analysis in wastewater and approaches addressing the quantitative relationship between WBE and medical surveillance are lacking. In the present study, a mathematical model is developed which uses as input the number of daily positive medical tests together with the highly non-linear shedding rate curve of individuals to estimate the evolution of global virus shedding rate in wastewater along calendar days. A comprehensive parametric study by the model using as input actual medical surveillance and WBE data for the city of Thessaloniki (~700,000 inhabitants, North Greece) during the outbreak of November 2020 reveals the conditions under which WBE can be used as an early warning tool for predicting pandemic outbreaks. It is shown that early warning capacity is different along the days of an outbreak and depends strongly on the number of days apart between the day of maximum shedding rate of infected individuals in their disease cycle and the day of their medical testing. The present data indicate for Thessaloniki an average early warning capacity of around 2 days. Moreover, the data imply that there exists a proportion between unreported cases (asymptomatic persons with mild symptoms that do not seek medical advice) and reported cases. The proportion increases with the number of reported cases. The early detection capacity of WBE improves substantially in the presence of an increasing number of unreported cases. For Thessaloniki at the peak of the pandemic in mid-November 2020, the number of unreported cases reached a maximum around 4 times the number of reported cases.
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