ArticleJournal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology2021
A Validated Risk Prediction Model for Breast Cancer in US Black Women.
Article in Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
24 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Development and performance of female breast cancer incidence risk prediction models: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Annals of medicine · 2025Pooled it
- A systematic review of prediction models for risk of breast cancer.BMC cancer · 2025Pooled it
- Performance of three breast cancer risk assessment tools in US Black women.Breast cancer research : BCR · 2026Article
- Factors predicting the risk of breast cancer: construction and validation of a nomogram model.Quantitative imaging in medicine and surgery · 2026Article
- Article
- Mammographic density and breast cancer risk among Black American women.International journal of cancer · 2025Article
- A roadmap to reduce the incidence and mortality of breast cancer by rethinking our approach to women's health.Breast cancer research and treatment · 2025Review
- Development and Validation of Dynamic 5-Year Breast Cancer Risk Model Using Repeated Mammograms.JCO clinical cancer informatics · 2024Article
- Feasibility of risk assessment for breast cancer molecular subtypes.Breast cancer research and treatment · 2024Article
- Defining the Need for Services for Patients at High Risk of Breast Cancer at a Safety-Net Hospital: An Approach to Narrowing the Disparities Gap.Annals of surgical oncology · 2024Article
- Understanding mechanisms of racial disparities in breast cancer: an assessment of screening and regular care in the Carolina Breast Cancer Study.Cancer causes & control : CCC · 2024Article
- Disparities in Breast Cancer Care-How Factors Related to Prevention, Diagnosis, and Treatment Drive Inequity.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Review
- Validating a model for predicting breast cancer and nonbreast cancer death in women aged 55 years and older.Journal of the National Cancer Institute · 2024Article
- Addition of polygenic risk score to a risk calculator for prediction of breast cancer in US Black women.Breast cancer research : BCR · 2024Article
- Variability Among Breast Cancer Risk Classification Models When Applied at the Level of the Individual Woman.Journal of general internal medicine · 2023Article
- Young Black Women May be More Likely to Have First Mammogram Cancers: A New Perspective in Breast Cancer Disparities.Annals of surgical oncology · 2023Article
- Testing Explanations for Skepticism of Personalized Risk Information.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2023Article
- Neighborhood factors and triple negative breast cancer: The role of cumulative exposure to area-level risk factors.Cancer medicine · 2023Article
- Development and validation of a risk score (Delay-7) to predict the occurrence of a treatment delay following cycle 1 chemotherapy.ESMO open · 2023Article
- A model for predicting both breast cancer risk and non-breast cancer death among women > 55 years old.Breast cancer research : BCR · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
11 authors.
Funding
Abstract
purposeBreast cancer risk prediction models are used to identify high-risk women for early detection, targeted interventions, and enrollment into prevention trials. We sought to develop and evaluate a risk prediction model for breast cancer in US Black women, suitable for use in primary care settings.
methodsBreast cancer relative risks and attributable risks were estimated using data from Black women in three US population-based case-control studies (3,468 breast cancer cases; 3,578 controls age 30-69 years) and combined with SEER age- and race-specific incidence rates, with incorporation of competing mortality, to develop an absolute risk model. The model was validated in prospective data among 51,798 participants of the Black Women's Health Study, including 1,515 who developed invasive breast cancer. A second risk prediction model was developed on the basis of estrogen receptor (ER)-specific relative risks and attributable risks. Model performance was assessed by calibration (expected/observed cases) and discriminatory accuracy (C-statistic).
resultsThe expected/observed ratio was 1.01 (95% CI, 0.95 to 1.07). Age-adjusted C-statistics were 0.58 (95% CI, 0.56 to 0.59) overall and 0.63 (95% CI, 0.58 to 0.68) among women younger than 40 years. These measures were almost identical in the model based on estrogen receptor-specific relative risks and attributable risks.
conclusionDiscriminatory accuracy of the new model was similar to that of the most frequently used questionnaire-based breast cancer risk prediction models in White women, suggesting that effective risk stratification for Black women is now possible. This model may be especially valuable for risk stratification of young Black women, who are below the ages at which breast cancer screening is typically begun.
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