Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34623444›Full record

ArticleThe Journal of infectious diseases2022

Time Taken to Detect and Respond to Polio Outbreaks in Africa and the Potential Impact of Direct Molecular Detection and Nanopore Sequencing.

Alexander G Shaw, Laura V Cooper, Nicksy Gumede, Ananda S Bandyopadhyay, Nicholas C Grassly, Isobel M Blake

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in The Journal of infectious diseases, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
14citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

14 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Alexander G ShawMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
Laura V CooperMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
Nicksy GumedeWorld Health Organization African Region Office, Brazzaville, Congo.
Ananda S BandyopadhyayBill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, Washington, USA.
Nicholas C GrasslyMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
Isobel M BlakeMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.

Funding

Medical Research Council MR/R015600/1World Health Organization 001
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundDetection of poliovirus outbreaks relies on a complex laboratory algorithm of cell-culture, polymerase chain reaction (PCR), and sequencing to distinguish wild-type and vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPV) from Sabin-like strains. We investigated the potential for direct molecular detection and nanopore sequencing (DDNS) to accelerate poliovirus detection.

methodsWe analyzed laboratory data for time required to analyze and sequence serotype-2 VDPV (VDPV2) in stool collected from children with acute flaccid paralysis in Africa (May 2016-February 2020). Impact of delayed detection on VDPV2 outbreak size was assessed through negative binomial regression.

resultsVDPV2 confirmation in 525 stools required a median of 49 days from paralysis onset (10th-90th percentile, 29-74), comprising collection and transport (median, 16 days), cell-culture (7 days), intratypic differentiation quantitative reverse transcription PCR (3 days), and sequencing, including shipping if required (15 days). New VDPV2 outbreaks were confirmed a median of 35 days (27-60) after paralysis onset, which we estimate could be reduced to 16 days by DDNS (9-37). Because longer delays in confirmation and response were positively associated with more cases (P < .001), we estimate that DDNS could reduce the number of VDPV2 cases before a response by 28% (95% credible interval, 12%-42%).

conclusionsDDNS could accelerate poliovirus outbreak response, reducing their size and the cost of eradication.

Indexed as

Nanopore SequencingPoliomyelitisPoliovirusAfricaChildDisease OutbreaksHumansParalysisPoliovirus Vaccine, OralPoliovirus Vaccine, OralAFPdirect detectionnanoporeoutbreakpoliovirusstoolsurveillanceVDPV

Identifiers

PMID34623444
PMCPMC9417130

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.