Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34622277›Full record

ArticleEpidemiologic reviews2022

The Revolution Will Be Hard to Evaluate: How Co-Occurring Policy Changes Affect Research on the Health Effects of Social Policies.

Ellicott C Matthay, Erin Hagan, Spruha Joshi, May Lynn Tan, David Vlahov, Nancy Adler, M Maria Glymour

Erratum issuedAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Epidemiologic reviews, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 37 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
37citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

37 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Causal Inference in Health Disparities Research.Annual review of public health · 2026
    Review
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  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. The long-term health effects of welfare reform.Social science & medicine (1982) · 2025
    Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Target Trial Emulation for Evaluating Health Policy.Annals of internal medicine · 2024
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Ellicott C Matthay
Erin Hagan
Spruha Joshi
May Lynn Tan
David Vlahov
Nancy Adler
M Maria Glymour

Funding

BEHAVIORAL SCI TRAINING IN DRUG ABUSE RESEARCHT32DA007233 · NIDA · PUBLIC HEALTH SOLUTIONS · PI GOLDSAMT, LLOYD A · 1985 to 2023
$20.2M
Joint impacts of local alcohol and cannabis policies and outlet densities on violenceK99AA028256 · NIAAA · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI MATTHAY, ELLICOTT COLSON · 2020 to 2021
$342k
NIAAA NIH HHS K99 AA028256NIDA NIH HHS T32 DA007233
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Extensive empirical health research leverages variation in the timing and location of policy changes as quasi-experiments. Multiple social policies may be adopted simultaneously in the same locations, creating co-occurrence that must be addressed analytically for valid inferences. The pervasiveness and consequences of co-occurring policies have received limited attention. We analyzed a systematic sample of 13 social policy databases covering diverse domains including poverty, paid family leave, and tobacco use. We quantified policy co-occurrence in each database as the fraction of variation in each policy measure across different jurisdictions and times that could be explained by covariation with other policies. We used simulations to estimate the ratio of the variance of effect estimates under the observed policy co-occurrence to variance if policies were independent. Policy co-occurrence ranged from very high for state-level cannabis policies to low for country-level sexual minority-rights policies. For 65% of policies, greater than 90% of the place-time variation was explained by other policies. Policy co-occurrence increased the variance of effect estimates by a median of 57-fold. Co-occurring policies are common and pose a major methodological challenge to rigorously evaluating health effects of individual social policies. When uncontrolled, co-occurring policies confound one another, and when controlled, resulting positivity violations may substantially inflate the variance of estimated effects. Tools to enhance validity and precision for evaluating co-occurring policies are needed.

Indexed as

Family LeavePublic PolicyHumansSalaries and Fringe Benefitsepidemiologic methodspolicy analysispopulation healthpublic policyresearch designsocial determinants

Identifiers

PMID34622277
PMCPMC8763115

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.