ArticleRevista de la Facultad de Ciencias Medicas (Cordoba, Argentina)2021
SIR model of the pandemic trend of COVID-19 in Peru.
Article in Revista de la Facultad de Ciencias Medicas (Cordoba, Argentina), 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Prediction of cross-border spread of the COVID-19 pandemic: A predictive model for imported cases outside China.PloS one · 2024Article
- Epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hohhot, China: a time-varying SQEIAHR model analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
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Abstract
The SARS-CoV-2 virus from Europe has reached Peru on March 5 and since March 16 a state of national emergency has been declared, leading to the confinement of the entire population. The objective of this study is to characterize the epidemic evolution of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) applying the SIR model (Susceptible-Infectious-recovered or deceased) during a period of 200 days. The time series data of COVID-19 from March 06 to May 14, 2020 of the Peruvian Ministry of Health was used, presenting estimated cases by varying the basic reproduction number R0. According to the SIR model, the peak of those infected occurs shortly after May 30 from the beginning of the epidemic (day 86) where the total number of infected cases decreases to R0 = 1.5. The results suggest that Peru's current stringent measures can effectively prevent the spread of COVID-19 and should be maintained even with efficient results.
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