Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34612811›Full record

ArticleeLife2021

Bayesian inference of population prevalence.

Robin Aa Ince, Angus T Paton, Jim W Kay, Philippe G Schyns

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in eLife, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 38 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
38citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

38 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Effects of social exclusion on following the gaze of others.British journal of psychology (London, England : 1953) · 2026
    Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Review
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Individual differences shape conceptual representation in the brain.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025
    Article
  9. The brain computes dynamic facial movements for emotion categorization using a third pathway.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  10. Article
  11. Overlapping Cortical Substrate of Biomechanical Control and Subjective Agency.The Journal of neuroscience : the official journal of the Society for Neuroscience · 2025
    Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Literacy in nonspeaking autistic people.Autism : the international journal of research and practice · 2024
    Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Robin Aa InceSchool of Psychology and Neuroscience, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0001-8427-0507
Angus T PatonSchool of Psychology and Neuroscience, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom.
Jim W KayDepartment of Statistics, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom.
Philippe G SchynsSchool of Psychology and Neuroscience, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom.

Funding

Wellcome Trust 107802Wellcome Trust 214120/Z/18/Z
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Within neuroscience, psychology, and neuroimaging, the most frequently used statistical approach is null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) of the population mean. An alternative approach is to perform NHST within individual participants and then infer, from the proportion of participants showing an effect, the prevalence of that effect in the population. We propose a novel Bayesian method to estimate such population prevalence that offers several advantages over population mean NHST. This method provides a population-level inference that is currently missing from study designs with small participant numbers, such as in traditional psychophysics and in precision imaging. Bayesian prevalence delivers a quantitative population estimate with associated uncertainty instead of reducing an experiment to a binary inference. Bayesian prevalence is widely applicable to a broad range of studies in neuroscience, psychology, and neuroimaging. Its emphasis on detecting effects within individual participants can also help address replicability issues in these fields.

Indexed as

BiostatisticsBayes TheoremData Interpretation, StatisticalHumansNeurosciencesPsychologyResearch Designgeneralisationhumaninferenceneuroscienceprevalencestatistics

Identifiers

PMID34612811
PMCPMC8494477

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.