ArticleScientific reports2021
Asymptomatic individuals can increase the final epidemic size under adaptive human behavior.
Article in Scientific reports, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 32 citations in OpenAlex.
- Meta-analysis of Asymptomatic Monkeypox Virus Prevalence in Nonendemic Regions, 2022-2024.Emerging infectious diseases · 2026Pooled it
- Epidemic spread with asymptomatic infectious period in contact adaptive networks.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Modeling the impact of hospitalization-induced behavioral changes on the spread of COVID-19 in New York City.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Adaptive human behavior and delays in information availability autonomously modulate epidemic waves.PNAS nexus · 2025Article
- The complex interplay between risk tolerance and the spread of infectious diseases.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Prediction of U.S. daily mask wearing and social distancing using psychologically valid agents during three waves of COVID-19.Frontiers in epidemiology · 2025Article
- Social dilemma of nonpharmaceutical interventions: Determinants of dynamic compliance and behavioral shifts.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- Adaptive human behaviour modulates the impact of immune life history and vaccination on long-term epidemic dynamics.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2024Article
- Mathematical Assessment of the Role of Human Behavior Changes on SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Dynamics in the United States.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2024Article
- SARS-CoV-2 wastewater surveillance at two university campuses: lessons learned and insights on intervention strategies for public health guidance.Journal of water and health · 2024Article
- A nonlinear relapse model with disaggregated contact rates: Analysis of a forward-backward bifurcation.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- Asymptomatic but infectious - The silent driver of pathogen transmission. A pragmatic review.Epidemics · 2023Review
- Lower transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 among asymptomatic cases: evidence from contact tracing data in Oslo, Norway.BMC medicine · 2022Article
- Heterogeneous adaptive behavioral responses may increase epidemic burden.Scientific reports · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
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Abstract
Infections produced by non-symptomatic (pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic) individuals have been identified as major drivers of COVID-19 transmission. Non-symptomatic individuals, unaware of the infection risk they pose to others, may perceive themselves-and be perceived by others-as not presenting a risk of infection. Yet, many epidemiological models currently in use do not include a behavioral component, and do not address the potential consequences of risk misperception. To study the impact of behavioral adaptations to the perceived infection risk, we use a mathematical model that incorporates the behavioral decisions of individuals, based on a projection of the system's future state over a finite planning horizon. We found that individuals' risk misperception in the presence of non-symptomatic individuals may increase or reduce the final epidemic size. Moreover, under behavioral response the impact of non-symptomatic infections is modulated by symptomatic individuals' behavior. Finally, we found that there is an optimal planning horizon that minimizes the final epidemic size.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.