ArticleEpidemics2021
Rational evaluation of various epidemic models based on the COVID-19 data of China.
Article in Epidemics, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 29 papers.
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Who cites it
29 citing papers in PubMed.
- In silico models in oncology, neurology, and epidemiology: systems-level and multiscale perspectives.NPJ systems biology and applications · 2026Review
- A Multi-Region SEIR Model Incorporating Inter-County Mobility and Time-Dependent Transmission Dynamics: Application to COVID-19 Disease Outbreak Data in North Carolina.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2026Article
- A Numerical Comparison of Petri Net and Ordinary Differential Equation SIR Component Models.IEEE access : practical innovations, open solutions · 2026Article
- A vaccination-based COVID-19 model: Analysis and prediction using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.Heliyon · 2024Article
- Factors Associated With Surveillance Testing in Individuals With COVID-19 Symptoms During the Last Leg of the Pandemic: Multivariable Regression Analysis.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Article
- A data-driven analysis on the mediation effect of compartment models between control measures and COVID-19 epidemics.Heliyon · 2024Article
- Bayesian model selection for COVID-19 pandemic state estimation using extended Kalman filters: Case study for Saudi Arabia.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- Model-informed health and socio-economic benefits of enhancing global equity and access to Covid-19 vaccines.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Infection prediction in swine populations with machine learning.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- The COVID-19 pandemic in various restriction policy scenarios based on the dynamic social contact rate.Heliyon · 2023Article
- Effect of sojourn time distributions on the early dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak.Nonlinear dynamics · 2023Article
- A probabilistic epidemiological model for infectious diseases: The case of COVID-19 at global-level.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2023Article
- Bounding pandemic spread by heat spread.Journal of engineering mathematics · 2023Article
- Quantifying Social Interventions for Combating COVID-19 via a Symmetry-Based Model.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- An efficient nonstandard computer method to solve a compartmental epidemiological model for COVID-19 with vaccination and population migration.Computer methods and programs in biomedicine · 2022Article
- Qualitative and quantitative analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic by a two-side fractional-order compartmental model.ISA transactions · 2022Article
- Analysis of COVID-19 in India using a vaccine epidemic model incorporating vaccine effectiveness and herd immunity.European physical journal plus · 2022Article
- Article
- COVID-19 Belgium: Extended SEIR-QD model with nursing homes and long-term scenarios-based forecasts.Epidemics · 2021Article
- A new logistic growth model applied to COVID-19 fatality data.Epidemics · 2021Article
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5 authors.
Funding
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Abstract
In this paper, based on the Akaike information criterion, root mean square error and robustness coefficient, a rational evaluation of various epidemic models/methods, including seven empirical functions, four statistical inference methods and five dynamical models, on their forecasting abilities is carried out. With respect to the outbreak data of COVID-19 epidemics in China, we find that before the inflection point, all models fail to make a reliable prediction. The Logistic function consistently underestimates the final epidemic size, while the Gompertz's function makes an overestimation in all cases. Towards statistical inference methods, the methods of sequential Bayesian and time-dependent reproduction number are more accurate at the late stage of an epidemic. And the transition-like behavior of exponential growth method from underestimation to overestimation with respect to the inflection point might be useful for constructing a more reliable forecast. Compared to ODE-based SIR, SEIR and SEIR-AHQ models, the SEIR-QD and SEIR-PO models generally show a better performance on studying the COVID-19 epidemics, whose success we believe could be attributed to a proper trade-off between model complexity and fitting accuracy. Our findings not only are crucial for the forecast of COVID-19 epidemics, but also may apply to other infectious diseases.
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