Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34599655›Full record

ArticleDiabetologia2021

Type 1 diabetes in 2017: global estimates of incident and prevalent cases in children and adults.

Anders Green, Simone M Hede, Christopher C Patterson, Sarah H Wild, Giuseppina Imperatore, Gojka Roglic, David Beran

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Diabetologia, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 126 papers, 8 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
126citing papers in PubMed, 8 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

126 citing papers in PubMed, 8 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  5. Therapeutic effects ofFrontiers in clinical diabetes and healthcare · 2025
    Pooled it
  6. Diabetes as a risk factor for tuberculosis disease.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2024
    Pooled it
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  11. Population Pharmacokinetic Modeling Study of Glibenclamide in Chinese Healthy Volunteers.European journal of drug metabolism and pharmacokinetics · 2026
    Article
  12. Trajectory of Kidney Function in T1D over Time: A Scoping Review.Diabetes therapy : research, treatment and education of diabetes and related disorders · 2026
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  19. Insulin regimens for adults living with type 1 diabetes mellitus.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2026
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66 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Anders GreenInstitute of Applied Economics and Health Research, Copenhagen, Denmark. agreen@dadlnet.dk.ORCID 0000-0002-5059-3655
Simone M HedeInstitute of Applied Economics and Health Research, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Christopher C PattersonCentre for Public Health, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-3001-1600
Sarah H WildUsher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-7824-2569
Giuseppina ImperatoreDivision of Diabetes Translation, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Gojka RoglicDepartment of Noncommunicable Diseases, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
David BeranDivision of Tropical and Humanitarian Medicine, University of Geneva and Geneva University Hospitals, Geneva, Switzerland. david.beran@unige.ch.ORCID 0000-0001-7229-3920

Funding

CGH CDC HHS U2G GH001235World Health Organization 001
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

aims/hypothesisData on type 1 diabetes incidence and prevalence are limited, particularly for adults. This study aims to estimate global numbers of incident and prevalent cases of type 1 diabetes in 2017 for all age groups, by country and areas defined by income and region.

methodsIncidence rates of type 1 diabetes in children (available from 94 countries) from the IDF Atlas were used and extrapolated to countries without data. Age-specific incidence rates in adults (only known across full age range for fewer than ten countries) were obtained by applying scaling ratios for each adult age group relative to the incidence rate in children. Age-specific incidence rates were applied to population estimates to obtain incident case numbers. Duration of diabetes was estimated from available data and adjusted using differences in childhood mortality rate between countries from United Nations demographic data. Prevalent case numbers were derived by modelling the relationship between prevalence, incidence and disease duration. Sensitivity analyses were performed to quantify the impact of alternative assumptions and model inputs.

resultsGlobal numbers of incident and prevalent cases of type 1 diabetes were estimated to be 234,710 and 9,004,610, respectively, in 2017. High-income countries, with 17% of the global population, accounted for 49% of global incident cases and 52% of prevalent cases. Asia, which has the largest proportion of the world's population (60%), had the largest number of incident (32%) and prevalent (31%) cases of type 1 diabetes. Globally, 6%, 35%, 43% and 16% of prevalent cases were in the age groups 0-14, 15-39, 40-64 and 65+ years, respectively. Based on sensitivity analyses, the estimates could deviate by ±15%. CONCLUSIONS/

interpretationGlobally, type 1 diabetes represents about 2% of the estimated total cases of diabetes, ranging from less than 1% in certain Pacific countries to more than 15% in Northern European populations in 2017. This study provides information for the development of healthcare and policy approaches to manage type 1 diabetes. The estimates need further validation due to limitations and assumptions related to data availability and estimation methods.

Indexed as

Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1AdultChildGlobal HealthHumansIncidenceIncomeInfant, NewbornPrevalenceAdultsChildrenEpidemiologyGlobal estimatesIncidencePrevalenceType 1 diabetes

Identifiers

PMID34599655
PMCPMC8563635

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.