Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34599095›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2021

Earth history events shaped the evolution of uneven biodiversity across tropical moist forests.

Oskar Hagen, Alexander Skeels, Renske E Onstein, Walter Jetz, Loïc Pellissier

Open access · hybridAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 38 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
38citing papers in PubMed
42.2field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

38 citing papers in PubMed, 129 citations in OpenAlex.

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  6. A theoretical framework for scaling ecological niches from individuals to species.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
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  8. Linking energetic instability to compositional changes in biological communities.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
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  12. The macro-eco-evolutionary interplay between dispersal, competition and landscape structure in generating biodiversity.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2024
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors at 3 institutions in 3 countries.

Oskar HagenLandscape Ecology, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, Department of Environmental Systems Science, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule (ETH) Zürich, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland; oskar@hagen.bio alexander.skeels@gmail.com loic.pellissier@usys.ethz.ch.ORCID 0000-0002-7931-6571
Alexander SkeelsLandscape Ecology, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, Department of Environmental Systems Science, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule (ETH) Zürich, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland; oskar@hagen.bio alexander.skeels@gmail.com loic.pellissier@usys.ethz.ch.ORCID 0000-0002-9973-4703
Renske E OnsteinEvolution and Adaptation Research Group, German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, 04103 Leipzig, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-2295-3510
Walter JetzDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520.ORCID 0000-0002-1971-7277
Loïc PellissierLandscape Ecology, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, Department of Environmental Systems Science, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule (ETH) Zürich, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland; oskar@hagen.bio alexander.skeels@gmail.com loic.pellissier@usys.ethz.ch.
Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research · CHGerman Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research · DEYale University · US

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Far from a uniform band, the biodiversity found across Earth's tropical moist forests varies widely between the high diversity of the Neotropics and Indomalaya and the relatively lower diversity of the Afrotropics. Explanations for this variation across different regions, the "pantropical diversity disparity" (PDD), remain contentious, due to difficulty teasing apart the effects of contemporary climate and paleoenvironmental history. Here, we assess the ubiquity of the PDD in over 150,000 species of terrestrial plants and vertebrates and investigate the relationship between the present-day climate and patterns of species richness. We then investigate the consequences of paleoenvironmental dynamics on the emergence of biodiversity gradients using a spatially explicit model of diversification coupled with paleoenvironmental and plate tectonic reconstructions. Contemporary climate is insufficient in explaining the PDD; instead, a simple model of diversification and temperature niche evolution coupled with paleoaridity constraints is successful in reproducing the variation in species richness and phylogenetic diversity seen repeatedly among plant and animal taxa, suggesting a prevalent role of paleoenvironmental dynamics in combination with niche conservatism. The model indicates that high biodiversity in Neotropical and Indomalayan moist forests is driven by complex macroevolutionary dynamics associated with mountain uplift. In contrast, lower diversity in Afrotropical forests is associated with lower speciation rates and higher extinction rates driven by sustained aridification over the Cenozoic. Our analyses provide a mechanistic understanding of the emergence of uneven diversity in tropical moist forests across 110 Ma of Earth's history, highlighting the importance of deep-time paleoenvironmental legacies in determining biodiversity patterns.

Indexed as

BiodiversityForestsTropical ClimateAnimalsBiological EvolutionEarth, Planetgen3sismechanistic modelingpaleoclimatepantropical diversity disparityplate tectonics

Identifiers

PMID34599095
PMCPMC8501849
OpenAlexW3202519863

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.