ArticleNature communications2021
Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics.
Article in Nature communications, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 64 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
64 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Capturing the spatiotemporal spread of COVID-19 in 30 European countries during 2020 - 2022.BMC public health · 2025Article
- SARS-CoV-2 Omicron XBB infections boost cross-variant neutralizing antibodies, potentially explaining the observed delay of the JN.1 wave in some Brazilian regions.IJID regions · 2025Article
- Microbial Dynamics in COVID-19: Unraveling the Impact of Human Microbiome on Disease Susceptibility and Therapeutic Strategies.Current microbiology · 2024Review
- Impact of waning immunity against SARS-CoV-2 severity exacerbated by vaccine hesitancy.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Dynamic SARS-CoV-2 surveillance model combining seroprevalence and wastewater concentrations for post-vaccine disease burden estimates.Communications medicine · 2024Article
- Impact of Vaccination and Nonpharmaceutical Interventions With Possible COVID-19 Viral Evolutions Using an Agent-Based Simulation.AJPM focus · 2024Article
- Article
- Co-evolution of SARS-CoV-2 variants and host immune response trajectories underlie COVID-19 pandemic to epidemic transition.iScience · 2023Article
- ISG15: its roles in SARS-CoV-2 and other viral infections.Trends in microbiology · 2023Review
- Wastewater and seroprevalence for pandemic preparedness: variant analysis, vaccination effect, and hospitalization forecasting for SARS-CoV-2, in Jefferson County, Kentucky.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
- Longitudinal kinetics of neutralizing antibodies against circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants and estimated level of group immunity of booster-vaccinated individuals during omicron-dominated COVID-19 outbreaks in the Republic of Korea, 2022.Microbiology spectrum · 2023Article
- Analysis of the risk and pre-emptive control of viral outbreaks accounting for within-host dynamics: SARS-CoV-2 as a case study.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- Fitness, growth and transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 genetic variants.Nature reviews. Genetics · 2023Review
- Article
- Hospital antibiotic consumption-an interrupted time series analysis of the early and late phases of the COVID-19 pandemic in Poland, a retrospective study.Pharmacological reports : PR · 2023Article
- Molecular test for COVID-19 diagnosis based on a colorimetric genomagnetic assay.Analytica chimica acta · 2023Article
- Study of optimal vaccination strategies for early COVID-19 pandemic using an age-structured mathematical model: A case study of the USA.Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE · 2023Article
- Article
- COVID-19 endgame: From pandemic to endemic? Vaccination, reopening and evolution in low- and high-vaccinated populations.Journal of theoretical biology · 2023Article
4 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Viral reproduction of SARS-CoV-2 provides opportunities for the acquisition of advantageous mutations, altering viral transmissibility, disease severity, and/or allowing escape from natural or vaccine-derived immunity. We use three mathematical models: a parsimonious deterministic model with homogeneous mixing; an age-structured model; and a stochastic importation model to investigate the effect of potential variants of concern (VOCs). Calibrating to the situation in England in May 2021, we find epidemiological trajectories for putative VOCs are wide-ranging and dependent on their transmissibility, immune escape capability, and the introduction timing of a postulated VOC-targeted vaccine. We demonstrate that a VOC with a substantial transmission advantage over resident variants, or with immune escape properties, can generate a wave of infections and hospitalisations comparable to the winter 2020-2021 wave. Moreover, a variant that is less transmissible, but shows partial immune-escape could provoke a wave of infection that would not be revealed until control measures are further relaxed.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.