ArticleJournal of racial and ethnic health disparities2022
Brazil's COVID-19 Epicenter in Manaus: How Much of the Population Has Already Been Exposed and Are Vulnerable to SARS-CoV-2?
Article in Journal of racial and ethnic health disparities, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed.
- Health-disease processes among women agriculturalists in Central Amazon: work and environmental vulnerabilities.Cadernos de saude publica · 2026Article
- The 1978 English boarding school influenza outbreak: where the classic SEIR model fails.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2024Article
- Brazil's Amazon Oxygen Crisis: How Lives and Health Were Sacrificed During the Peak of COVID-19 to Promote an Agenda with Long-Term Consequences for the Environment, Indigenous Peoples, and Health.Journal of racial and ethnic health disparities · 2024Article
- Demographic, social, and clinical aspects associated with access to COVID-19 health care in Pará province, Brazilian Amazon.Scientific reports · 2024Observational
- Article
- Resolving the enigma of Iquitos and Manaus: A modeling analysis of multiple COVID-19 epidemic waves in two Amazonian cities.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- Article
- Dynamics of COVID-19 in Amazonia: A history of government denialism and the risk of a third wave.Preventive medicine reports · 2022Article
- Costs of hospital admissions due to COVID-19 in the federal capital of Brazil: a study based on hospital admission authorizations.The Brazilian journal of infectious diseases : an official publication of the Brazilian Society of Infectious DiseasesArticle
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Is Brazil's COVID-19 epicenter really approaching herd immunity? A recent study estimated that in October 2020 three-quarters of the population of Manaus (the capital of the largest state in the Brazilian Amazon) had contact with SARS-CoV-2. We show that 46% of the Manaus population having had contact with SARS-CoV-2 at that time is a more plausible estimate, and that Amazonia is still far from herd immunity. The second wave of COVID-19 is now evident in Manaus. We predict that the pandemic of COVID-19 will continue throughout 2021, given the duration of naturally acquired immunity of only 240 days and the slow pace of vaccination. Manaus has a large percentage of the population that is susceptible (35 to 45% as of May 17, 2021). Against this backdrop, measures to restrict urban mobility and social isolation are still necessary, such as the closure of schools and universities, since the resumption of these activities in 2020 due to the low attack rates of SARS-CoV-2 was the main trigger for the second wave in Manaus.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.