ArticleFrontiers in ecology and the environment2021
Iteratively forecasting biological invasions with PoPS and a little help from our friends.
Article in Frontiers in ecology and the environment, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed.
- Real-Time Integrative Mapping of the Phenology and Climatic Suitability for the Spotted Lanternfly,Insects · 2025Article
- A phylogenetic epidemiology approach to predicting the establishment of multi-host plant pests.Communications biology · 2025Article
- Comprehensive assessment ofFrontiers in plant science · 2025Article
- A Gaussian-process approximation to a spatial SIR process using moment closures and emulators.Biometrics · 2024Article
- Utility of decision tools for assessing plant health risks from management strategies in natural environments.Ecology and evolution · 2024Article
- Editorial: Forest insect invasions - risk mapping approaches and applications.Frontiers in insect science · 2024Article
- Modeling human activity-related spread of the spotted lanternfly (Lycorma delicatula) in the US.PloS one · 2024Article
- SAFARIS: a spatial analytic framework for pest forecast systems.Frontiers in insect science · 2023Article
- An integrative phenology and climatic suitability model for emerald ash borer.Frontiers in insect science · 2023Article
- A discrete-time survival model for porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2022Article
- Paninvasion severity assessment of a U.S. grape pest to disrupt the global wine market.Communications biology · 2022Article
- Spotted lanternfly predicted to establish in California by 2033 without preventative management.Communications biology · 2022Article
- Evaluating online and tangible interfaces for engaging stakeholders in forecasting and control of biological invasions.Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America · 2021Article
- Iteratively forecasting biological invasions with PoPS and a little help from our friends.Frontiers in ecology and the environment · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
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Abstract
Ecological forecasting has vast potential to support environmental decision making with repeated, testable predictions across management-relevant timescales and locations. Yet resource managers rarely use co-designed forecasting systems or embed them in decision making. Although prediction of planned management outcomes is particularly important for biological invasions to optimize when and where resources should be allocated, spatial-temporal models of spread typically have not been openly shared, iteratively updated, or interactive to facilitate exploration of management actions. We describe a species-agnostic, open-source framework - called the Pest or Pathogen Spread (PoPS) Forecasting Platform - for co-designing near-term iterative forecasts of biological invasions. Two case studies are presented to demonstrate that iterative calibration yields higher forecast skill than using only the earliest-available data to predict future spread. The PoPS framework is a primary example of an ecological forecasting system that has been both scientifically improved and optimized for real-world decision making through sustained participation and use by management stakeholders.
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Registered trials
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