ArticleNature communications2021
Bayesian inference with incomplete knowledge explains perceptual confidence and its deviations from accuracy.
Article in Nature communications, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers.
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Who cites it
27 citing papers in PubMed.
- Macaque Area LIP Reflects Confidence-Dependent Changes in Decision Policy.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026Article
- Confidence Is Detection-Like in High-Dimensional Spaces.Open mind : discoveries in cognitive science · 2026Article
- Neural basis of concurrent deliberation toward a choice and confidence judgment.Nature neuroscience · 2026Article
- Extended fear learning enhances excitatory and inhibitory synaptic transmission onto amygdala engram cells.Nature communications · 2025Article
- How disconfirmatory evidence shapes confidence in decision-making.Communications psychology · 2025Article
- Computational and Neuronal Basis of Visual Confidence.Annual review of vision science · 2025Review
- Neural basis of concurrent deliberation toward a choice and confidence judgment.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025Article
- Multifaceted confidence in exploratory choice.PloS one · 2025Article
- The relationship between confidence and gaze-at-nothing oculomotor dynamics during decision-making.PloS one · 2025Article
- Bayesian confidence in optimal decisions.Psychological review · 2024Article
- A low-dimensional approximation of optimal confidence.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Recurrent Neural Circuits Overcome Partial Inactivation by Compensation and Re-learning.The Journal of neuroscience : the official journal of the Society for Neuroscience · 2024Article
- Neurocomputational mechanisms involved in adaptation to fluctuating intentions of others.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Affective valence does not reflect progress prediction errors in perceptual decisions.Cognitive, affective & behavioral neuroscience · 2024Article
- What the eyes, confidence, and partner's identity can tell about change of mind.Neuroscience of consciousness · 2024Article
- Expressions for Bayesian confidence of drift diffusion observers in fluctuating stimuli tasks.Journal of mathematical psychology · 2023Article
- Distinct value computations support rapid sequential decisions.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Attractor dynamics reflect decision confidence in macaque prefrontal cortex.Nature neuroscience · 2023Article
- Metacognitive awareness in the sound-induced flash illusion.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2023Article
- Contributions of the Basal Ganglia to Visual Perceptual Decisions.Annual review of vision science · 2023Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
In perceptual decisions, subjects infer hidden states of the environment based on noisy sensory information. Here we show that both choice and its associated confidence are explained by a Bayesian framework based on partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). We test our model on monkeys performing a direction-discrimination task with post-decision wagering, demonstrating that the model explains objective accuracy and predicts subjective confidence. Further, we show that the model replicates well-known discrepancies of confidence and accuracy, including the hard-easy effect, opposing effects of stimulus variability on confidence and accuracy, dependence of confidence ratings on simultaneous or sequential reports of choice and confidence, apparent difference between choice and confidence sensitivity, and seemingly disproportionate influence of choice-congruent evidence on confidence. These effects may not be signatures of sub-optimal inference or discrepant computational processes for choice and confidence. Rather, they arise in Bayesian inference with incomplete knowledge of the environment.
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Registered trials
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