ArticleBMJ open2021
Impact of COVID-19 social distancing measures on future incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease in England and Wales: a mathematical modelling study.
Article in BMJ open, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed.
- Non-pharmaceutical interventions restructured the upper respiratory bacterial microbiota in children under 2 during COVID-19: implications for infection control strategies.Frontiers in microbiology · 2026Article
- Improving the accuracy of Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) incidence estimates among hospitalised adults in Bristol, UK.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Public health impact and cost-effectiveness of introducing MenACWY vaccination strategies in Germany.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Serotype Distribution and Disease Severity in Adults Hospitalized with Streptococcus pneumoniae Infection, Bristol and Bath, UK, 2006‒2022.Emerging infectious diseases · 2023Review
- Article
- Impact of pandemics and disruptions to vaccination on infectious diseases epidemiology past and present.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2023Review
- Estimating the Cost-Effectiveness of Switching to Higher-Valency Pediatric Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines in the United Kingdom.Vaccines · 2023Article
- Article
- The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on community respiratory virus activity.Nature reviews. Microbiology · 2023Review
- Article
- Incidence of community acquired lower respiratory tract disease in Bristol, UK during the COVID-19 pandemic: A prospective cohort study.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2022Article
- Increased Incidence of Invasive Pneumococcal Disease among Children after COVID-19 Pandemic, England.Emerging infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Association of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions During the COVID-19 Pandemic With Invasive Pneumococcal Disease, Pneumococcal Carriage, and Respiratory Viral Infections Among Children in France.JAMA network open · 2022Article
- Shift in Clinical Profile of Hospitalized Pneumonia in Children in the Non-pharmaceutical Interventions Period During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Prospective Multicenter Study.Frontiers in pediatrics · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesIn January 2020, the UK moved to a 1+1 schedule for the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) with a single priming dose at 3-month and a 12-month booster. We modelled the impact on invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) out to 2030/2031 of reductions in PCV13 coverage and population mixing associated with restrictions on non-essential healthcare visits and social distancing measures introduced in 2020/2021 to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
designUsing an existing model of pneumococcal transmission in England and Wales, we simulated the impact of a 40% reduction in coverage and a 40% reduction in mixing between and within age groups during two lockdowns in spring 2020 and autumn/winter 2020/2021. More and less extreme reductions in coverage and mixing were explored in a sensitivity analysis.
main outcome measuresPredicted annual numbers of IPD cases under different coverage and mixing reduction scenarios with uncertainty intervals (UIs) generated from minimum and maximum values of the model predictions using 500 parameter sets.
resultsThe model predicted that any increase in IPD cases resulting from a reduction in PCV13 coverage would be more than offset by a reduction in pneumococcal transmission due to social distancing measures and that overall reductions in IPD cases will persist for a few years after resumption of normal mixing. The net reduction in cumulative IPD cases over the five epidemiological years from July 2019 was predicted to be 13 494 (UI 12 211, 14 676) all ages. Similar results were obtained in the sensitivity analysis.
conclusionCOVID-19 lockdowns are predicted to have had a profound effect on pneumococcal transmission resulting in a reduction in pneumococcal carriage prevalence and IPD incidence for up to 5 years after the end of the lockdown period. Carriage studies will be informative in confirming the predicted impact of the lockdown measures after they have been lifted.
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