ArticleBMC medicine2021
Estimating the annual dengue force of infection from the age of reporting primary infections across urban centres in endemic countries.
Article in BMC medicine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- A Retrospective Study of Climate Change Affecting Dengue: Evidences, Challenges and Future Directions.Frontiers in public health · 2022Pooled it
- The impact of elevation and population density on dengue incidence and force of infection across the Philippines: Implications for climate-adapted surveillance.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Force of Infection Model for Estimating Time to Dengue Virus Seropositivity among Expatriate Populations, Thailand.Emerging infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Reconciling heterogeneous dengue virus infection risk estimates from different study designs.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Investigation of severe dengue outbreak in Maumere, East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia: Clinical, serological, and virological features.PloS one · 2025Article
- Reconciling heterogeneous dengue virus infection risk estimates from different study designs.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Projecting temperature-related dengue burden in the Philippines under various socioeconomic pathway scenarios.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- From serological surveys to disease burden: a modelling pipeline for Chagas disease.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2023Article
- A phylogenetic study of dengue virus in urban Vietnam shows long-term persistence of endemic strains.Virus evolution · 2023Article
- Serology as a Tool to Assess Infectious Disease Landscapes and Guide Public Health Policy.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Review
- Combining rapid diagnostic tests to estimate primary and post-primary dengue immune status at the point of care.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
17 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundStratifying dengue risk within endemic countries is crucial for allocating limited control interventions. Current methods of monitoring dengue transmission intensity rely on potentially inaccurate incidence estimates. We investigated whether incidence or alternate metrics obtained from standard, or laboratory, surveillance operations represent accurate surrogate indicators of the burden of dengue and can be used to monitor the force of infection (FOI) across urban centres.
methodsAmong those who reported and resided in 13 cities across the Philippines, we collected epidemiological data from all dengue case reports between 2014 and 2017 (N 80,043) and additional laboratory data from a cross-section of sampled case reports (N 11,906) between 2014 and 2018. At the city level, we estimated the aggregated annual FOI from age-accumulated IgG among the non-dengue reporting population using catalytic modelling. We compared city-aggregated FOI estimates to aggregated incidence and the mean age of clinically and laboratory diagnosed dengue cases using Pearson's Correlation coefficient and generated predicted FOI estimates using regression modelling.
resultsWe observed spatial heterogeneity in the dengue average annual FOI across sampled cities, ranging from 0.054 [0.036-0.081] to 0.249 [0.223-0.279]. Compared to FOI estimates, the mean age of primary dengue infections had the strongest association (ρ -0.848, p value<0.001) followed by the mean age of those reporting with warning signs (ρ -0.642, p value 0.018). Using regression modelling, we estimated the predicted annual dengue FOI across urban centres from the age of those reporting with primary infections and revealed prominent spatio-temporal heterogeneity in transmission intensity.
conclusionsWe show the mean age of those reporting with their first dengue infection or those reporting with warning signs of dengue represent superior indicators of the dengue FOI compared to crude incidence across urban centres. Our work provides a framework for national dengue surveillance to routinely monitor transmission and target control interventions to populations most in need.
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