ArticleInfection and drug resistance2021
Estimating the Long-Term Epidemiological Trends and Seasonality of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in China.
Article in Infection and drug resistance, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed.
- Biosample Donation Intentions of Patients with Infectious Disease Based on the Theory of Planned Behavior: A Qualitative Study.Infection and drug resistance · 2026Article
- Forecasting Acute Hemorrhagic Conjunctivitis Incidence in Henan, China: A Comparative Study of Seasonal Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models.Risk management and healthcare policy · 2026Article
- Forecasting Foodborne Disease Risk Caused byFoods (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Developing a seasonal-adjusted machine-learning-based hybrid time‑series model to forecast heatwave warning.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Spatial-temporal patterns and influencing factors for hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome: A 16-year national surveillance analysis in China.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2024Article
- Time series analysis-based seasonal autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average to estimate hepatitis B and C epidemics in China.World journal of gastroenterology · 2023Article
- Construction of a Hantaan Virus Phage Antibody Library and Screening for Potential Neutralizing Activity.Viruses · 2023Article
- The research on TBATS and ELM models for prediction of human brucellosis cases in mainland China: a time series study.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Climate and socio-economic factors drive the spatio-temporal dynamics of HFRS in Northeastern China.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2022Article
- Comparative Immunoreactivity Analyses of Hantaan Virus Glycoprotein-Derived MHC-I Epitopes in Vaccination.Vaccines · 2022Article
- Epidemiological trend in scarlet fever incidence in China during the COVID-19 pandemic: A time series analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Time series models show comparable projection performance with joinpoint regression: A comparison using historical cancer data from World Health Organization.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
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Abstract
objectiveWe aim to examine the adequacy of an innovation state-space modeling framework (called TBATS) in forecasting the long-term epidemic seasonality and trends of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS).
methodsThe HFRS morbidity data from January 1995 to December 2020 were taken, and subsequently, the data were split into six different training and testing segments (including 12, 24, 36, 60, 84, and 108 holdout monthly data) to investigate its predictive ability of the TBATS method, and its forecasting performance was compared with the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA).
resultsThe TBATS (0.27, {0,0}, -, {<12,4>}) and SARIMA (0,1,(1,3))(0,1,1)
conclusionThe TBATS approach outperforms the SARIMA approach in estimating the long-term epidemic seasonality and trends of HFRS, which is capable of being deemed as a promising alternative to help stakeholders to inform future preventive policy or practical solutions to tackle the evolving scenarios.
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