ArticleTourism management perspectives2021
Measuring risks and vulnerability of tourism to the COVID-19 crisis in the context of extreme uncertainty: The case of the Balearic Islands.
Article in Tourism management perspectives, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed.
- Assessing the reactions of tourist markets to reinstated travel restrictions in the destination during the post-COVID-19 phase.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Article
- Quantitative simulation and verification of the tourism economic resilience in urban agglomerations.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- The molecular epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in the Pityusic Islands shows multiple introductions and fast replacements of variants in a touristic worldwide hot spot.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- A systematic scoping review of environmental and socio-economic effects of COVID-19 on the global ocean-human system.The Science of the total environment · 2022Article
- COVID-led consumption displacement: A longitudinal analysis of hotel booking patterns.International journal of hospitality management · 2022Article
- Ecotourism supply chain during the COVID-19 pandemic: A real case study.Applied soft computing · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
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Abstract
The COVID-19 crisis is dramatically affecting the world economy and, particularly, the tourism sector. In the context of extreme uncertainty, the use of probabilistic forecasting models is especially suitable. We use Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the outcomes of four possible tourism demand recovery scenarios in the Balearic Islands, which are further used to measure the risks and vulnerability of Balearic economy to the COVID-19 crisis. Our results show that fear of contagion and loss of income in tourism emitting countries will result in a maximum 89% drop in arrivals in the Balearic Islands in 2020.Given that most tourism-related occupations are not highly skilled and are characterized by lower salaries, there are greater risks of loss of welfare, especially for women, who are a major share of the tourism labour force.The model shows important differences among minimum, average and maximum estimates for tourism sector production in 2021, reflecting considerable uncertainty regarding the speed of the sector's recovery. The results serve as a basis to prepare a range of policies to reduce destination vulnerability under different crisis outcomes.
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