ArticleHealthcare (Basel, Switzerland)2021
Estimation of Human Mobility Patterns for Forecasting the Early Spread of Disease.
Article in Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland), 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Privacy by Projection: Federated Population Density Estimation by Projecting on Random Features.Proceedings on Privacy Enhancing Technologies. Privacy Enhancing Technologies Symposium · 2023Article
- Epidemic Diffusion Network of Spain: A Mobility Model to Characterize the Transmission Routes of Disease.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- Diagnostic Policies Optimization for Chronic Diseases Based on POMDP Model.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
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Abstract
Human mobility data are indispensable in modeling large-scale epidemics, especially in predicting the spatial spread of diseases and in evaluating spatial heterogeneity intervention strategies. However, statistical data that can accurately describe large-scale population migration are often difficult to obtain. We propose an algorithm model based on the network science approach, which estimates the travel flow data in mainland China by transforming location big data and airline operation data into network structure information. In addition, we established a simplified deterministic SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered)-metapopulation model to verify the effectiveness of the estimated travel flow data in the study of predicting epidemic spread. The results show that individual travel distance in mainland China is mainly within 100 km. There is far more travel between prefectures within the same province than across provinces. The epidemic spatial spread model incorporating estimated travel data accurately predicts the spread of COVID-19 in mainland China. The results suggest that there are far more travelers than usual during the Spring Festival in mainland China, and the number of travelers from Wuhan mainly determines the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in each prefecture.
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