ArticleInternational journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases2021
Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: a geospatial and statistical analysis in Mogadishu, Somalia.
Article in International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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16 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in low-and lower-middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC public health · 2024Pooled it
- The Role of Remote Sensing and Geospatial Analysis for Understanding COVID-19 Population Severity: A Systematic Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Pooled it
- Do Mobile Phone Surveys Supplement Other Mortality Surveillance Methods? Results From a National Study in Bangladesh.Tropical medicine & international health : TM & IH · 2026Article
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- An assessment of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic, a retrospective post-mortem surveillance in 12 districts - Zambia, 2020-2022.BMC public health · 2024Article
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- Mortality among populations affected by armed conflict in northeast Nigeria, 2016 to 2019.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- Article
- Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2021) in an urban community of Bangladesh.PLOS global public health · 2023Article
- COVID-19 impacts on healthcare access in sub-Saharan Africa: an overview.The journal of venomous animals and toxins including tropical diseases · 2023Article
- Consistent pattern of epidemic slowing across many geographies led to longer, flatter initial waves of the COVID-19 pandemic.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Collecting mortality data via mobile phone surveys: A non-inferiority randomized trial in Malawi.PLOS global public health · 2022Article
- Evaluating COVID-19 decision-making in a humanitarian setting: The case study of Somalia.PLOS global public health · 2022Article
- Article
- Data innovation in response to COVID-19 in Somalia: application of a syndromic case definition and rapid mortality assessment method.Global health action · 2021Article
- Date of introduction and epidemiologic patterns of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Mogadishu, Somalia: estimates from transmission modelling of satellite-based excess mortality data in 2020.Wellcome open research · 2021Article
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10 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundWhile the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been well documented in high-income countries, less is known about the health effects in Somalia, where health systems are weak and vital registration is underdeveloped.
methodsWe used remote sensing and geospatial analysis to quantify burial numbers from January 2017 to September 2020 in Mogadishu. We imputed missing grave counts using surface area data. Simple interpolation and a generalised additive mixed growth model were used to predict actual and counterfactual burial rates by cemetery and across Mogadishu during the most likely period of COVID-19 excess mortality and to compute excess burials. We undertook a qualitative survey of key informants to determine the drivers of COVID-19 excess mortality.
resultsBurial rates increased during the pandemic, averaging 1.5-fold and peaking at a 2.2-fold increase on pre-pandemic levels. When scaled to plausible range of baseline crude death rates, the excess death toll between January and September 2020 was 3200-11 800. Compared with Barakaat Cemetery Committee's burial records, our estimates were lower.
conclusionsOur study indicates considerable underestimation of the health effects of COVID-19 in Banadir and an overburdened public health system struggling to deal with the increasing severity of the epidemic in 2020.
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