Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34568515›Full record

ArticleAmerican journal of health economics2021

THE EVOLVING CONSEQUENCES OF OXYCONTIN REFORMULATION ON DRUG OVERDOSES.

David Powell, Rosalie Liccardo Pacula

Open access · greenAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in American journal of health economics, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
23citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
7.2field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

23 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 73 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Insurance coverage and provision of opioid disorder treatment: Evidence from Medicare.Journal of policy analysis and management : [the journal of the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management] · 2026
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  16. Demographic and Geographic Variation in Fatal Drug Overdoses in the United States, 1999-2020.The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science · 2022
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  18. ORIGINS OF THE OPIOID CRISIS AND ITS ENDURING IMPACTS.The quarterly journal of economics · 2022
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

David PowellRAND.
Rosalie Liccardo PaculaSol Price School of Public Policy and Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics, University of Southern California, and NBER.
RAND Corporation · US

Funding

Optimal Methods for Estimating Policy Effect Heterogeneity in Opioid Policy ResearchP50DA046351 · NIDA · RAND CORPORATION · PI BRADLEY D STEIN · 2018 to 2026
$20.8M
Improving Naloxone Access and Its Effects on Drug Abuse and OverdosesR01CE002999 · CE · RAND CORPORATION · PI POWELL, DAVID · 2018 to 2020
$1.9M
Prescription Drug Coverage, Access to Opioids, and Drug AbuseR21DA041653 · NIDA · RAND CORPORATION · PI POWELL, DAVID · 2017 to 2018
$526k
ACL HHS R01CE002999NCIPC CDC HHS R01 CE002999NIDA NIH HHS P50 DA046351NIDA NIH HHS R21 DA041653
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Recent evidence suggests that the short-term transition of the opioid crisis from prescription opioids to heroin can be attributed to the reformulation of OxyContin, which substantially reduced access to abusable prescription opioids. In this paper, we find that over a longer time horizon, reformulation stimulated illicit drug markets to grow and evolve. We compare overdose trajectories in areas more exposed to reformulation, defined as states with higher rates of nonmedical OxyContin use before reformulation, to less exposed areas. More exposed areas experienced disproportionate increases in fatal overdoses involving synthetic opioids (fentanyl) and nonopioid substances like cocaine, suggesting that these new epidemics are related to the same factors driving the rise in heroin deaths. Instead of just short-term substitution from prescription opioid to heroin overdoses, the transition to illicit markets spurred by reformulation led to growth in the overall overdose rate to unprecedented levels.

Indexed as

cocainefentanylI12I18illicit drug marketsopioid crisisoverdose rates

Identifiers

PMID34568515
PMCPMC8460090
OpenAlexW3009920047

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.